The Phoenix Suns are looking for a quick rebound after a 20-point loss to Charlotte last night as they head to the Target Center for a game with the Minnesota Timberwolves. A losing streak will come to an end tonight as Phoenix’ blowout defeat last night was its third in a row, while Minnesota finds itself on a two-game slide of its own. This is the first of a home-and-home with these squads and the Timberwolves are 12-point favorites with the total Sportsbook at 229 points.
- Phoenix is 2-10 SU and 5-7 ATS in its last 12 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 14 of Minnesota’s last 16 games.
- Phoenix is 0-13 SU and 6-7 ATS in the second half of its last 13 back-to-backs.
Phoenix vs Minnesota Game Center
Suns are near the bottom of the league on both sides of the ball
It has been tough sledding for Phoenix this season as it enters tonight’s game with just 11 wins, the fourth-fewest in the NBA and sits in the bottom of the Western Conference. Currently, it is wrapping up a four-game road swing, having dropped each of the first three games by an average losing margin of 18.67.
The large losing margin just points to the struggles the Suns are dealing with this season as they rank 25th in the league in points for per game at 106.2 and points allowed per game at 115.0 – not a good recipe for success. They actually shoot the ball well, hitting 45.8 percent of their shots from the floor which ranks 16th, but they take just 87.5 shots per game which rank 22nd.
They do a good job at creating turnovers, though, averaging 15.9 takeaways per game good for seventh in the association, but they also average 15.9 giveaways per game which rate 28th. Additionally, their opponents just punish them on the glass as they secure the second-fewest rebounds per game while giving up an average of 11 offensive boards per game ranking 23rd.
Timberwolves are struggling to find consistency
All season, Minnesota has been a team that you never know what you’re going to get when it steps onto the court. There are games in which it looks brilliant, such as its road victory over Oklahoma City a couple of weeks ago, followed by a home loss to Dallas just three days later. Most recently, it has dropped three of its last four games, including an ongoing two-game slide.
The Timberwolves are a fast-paced team that averages the fourth-most shots per game, unfortunately even with the high number of shots, they only shoot 44.9 percent from the floor which ranks 23rd in the league. They do a good job at attacking the rim for extra points as they grab the sixth-most offensive rebounds per game leading to the fourth-most second-chance points in the association.
Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota has extreme difficulties stopping its opponents from long range. The Timberwolves rank dead last in the league in opponent three-point percentage with their foes shooting 37.5 percent from downtown and are averaging 12.3 made triples per game which ranks 28th. However, they are consistently attacking the opposing ball handler, creating the ninth-most turnovers per game at 15.5.
Is the OVER the bet to make?
Tonight’s game features two teams in the bottom third of the league in points allowed per game and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 229 points. Minnesota has been an OVER machine recently with 14 of its last 16 games going OVER but the average combined score was 228.25 with seven of those games going OVER 229.
Meanwhile, Phoenix has gone UNDER in five of its last eight games with an average combined score of 222.63 with just three games going OVER 229. However, Minnesota does a good job at grabbing offensive rebounds, and Phoenix allows a lot of offensive boards. Similarly, the Timberwolves create the ninth-most turnovers and the Suns give the ball away the second-most times per game. I think the oddsmakers did a good job on this total, but gun to my head I would be on the UNDER.
My take on Phoenix vs Minnesota
I like Minnesota to cover the 12 points. Phoenix was blown out last night and then head to travel to Minnesota for tonight’s game, and it is 0-13 SU in the second of back-to-back nights dating back to last season with an average losing margin of 15.31.
Meanwhile, when the Timberwolves win at home, they win big with an averaging winning margin of 13.87, claiming victory by 12 or more points in seven of their last eight wins at the Target Center. Lastly, the areas that the Suns have difficulties in defending are areas that the Timberwolves are strong in and I expect them to run up the score.
