It might be the easiest bet in the NBA Playoffs right now but another OVER could be in the cards when the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets meet for Game 5 tonight. The OVER has hit in seven of the last eight games in this matchup (average combined score: 223.6) and neither team has really broken out from behind the arc yet through four games of this series.
The Nuggets opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 213.5.
Blazers vs Nuggets Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- The Nuggets have been very solid at home in the postseason. Denver is holding opponents to 98.7 points per game, 44.1 percent from the field and 32.6 percent from behind the arc and are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS at the Pepsi Center. However, they’re only averaging 30.7 percent from behind the arc in those games, which is last amongst all remaining playoff teams.
- The Blazers may rank first among playoff teams in three-point shooting in the playoffs but that has yet to carry over to this series. Through four games, the Blazers are averaging 30.1 percent from behind the arc but improved slightly on that effort in Game 4 by hitting 12 for 28 from deep. Damian Lillard has only shot 11 for 35 from behind the arc in this series.
- The Nuggets have been a brutal first-quarter bet lately and are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games. In the postseason, they're averaging just 23.5 pts in the Sportsbook quarter while the Blazers are averaging 28.7. It’s also worth noting that the Blazers are 4-0 ATS in the first quarter of each game in this series.
- Nikola Jokic had another monster game for Game 4 as he finished with triple-double of 21 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists and has three triple-doubles thus far in this series. The big man has shot 51.9 percent from the field and is averaging 26.8 points, 13.3 rebounds and 9.5 assists through four games of this series.
- OVER bettors will need to take a hard look at the total again for Game 5 because of the trends coming into this matchup. The OVER has hit in seven of the last eight games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 221.1) and the OVER has also hit in six of the Blazers' last seven games in the 2nd round of the playoffs.
My Best Bet for Blazers vs Nuggets
OVER 213.5
If you’ve read this far, you likely knew what my pick was going to be but I’m not messing with a good thing. I’ve cashed in on the OVER in three of four games in this series and while I think the Nuggets play better defense at home, I think the Blazers’ three-point shooting will come alive tonight because Damian Lillard can only shoot this poorly for so long. Denver and Portland haven’t shot well from behind the arc in this series and this total feels too low based on how these teams have scored the rock in these playoffs.
