Expect More Offensive Fireworks Between Blazers, Nuggets

A Denver Nuggets machine that rolled to victories in Games 2 and 3 of its first-round playoff series with Portland completely fell apart in Game 4 – and whether it can bounce back is the biggest question entering Game 5 on Tuesday. The host Nuggets (49-27 SU, 36-40 ATS) came out flat in a 115-95 loss to Portland (44-32 SU, 40-36 ATS) that sent the series back to Denver tied 2-2.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Nuggets are installed as 1.5-point favorites, the narrowest spread in the series since Denver was listed as a 1-point fave in Game 1. The total of 226 matches the Game 1 number but is slightly lower than Games 3 and 4.

Portland News & Notes

Damian Lillard’s colossal off-night had no impact on the final result, which should put a bit of a fright into Denver fans and bettors. Norman Powell matched a playoff career high with 29 points to offset Lillard’s 1-for-10 shooting performance and draw the Blazers even in the series. Powell is one of five Portland players averaging at least 13 points per game in the series.

Look for Lillard to correct things in Game 5, though that doesn’t necessarily mean you should lock in the OVER on his point prop. After averaging 37.7 points through the first three games, Lillard was held to just 10 on Saturday – and he has averaged just 24.4 points in seven games this season following contests in which he scored fewer than 20 points, well below his season average of 28.8.

Denver News & Notes

On the bright side, at least the Nuggets’ starters were able to get some much-needed rest Saturday. That’s about all the good news to come out of Denver’s abysmal Game 4 performance, in which the visitors fell behind by double digits at the break and were outscored 36-19 in the back-breaking third quarter. Nikola Jokic had just 16 points on 7-for-18 shooting while the Nuggets shot 34.0 percent overall from the floor and 29.5 percent from deep.

So just how effective was Jokic this season following dismal performances? Better than Lillard, as it turns out. Jokic, who ranked 12th in the NBA at 26.4 points per game, averaged 27.8 points in 17 games following performances of fewer than 20 points (including a 50-point showing in early February). That should put the OVER on his Game 5 point prop very much in play.

Betting Pick: OVER 226 (-110)

Three of the first four games in the series (and four of five meetings overall) have soared past the number, and with the Nuggets expected to fare much better from the field, Game 5 has major shootout potential.