Meeting for the third time already this season, the Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Lakers lock horns in a rubber match at Staples Center after splitting the first two meetings. The Blazers are riding a four-game win streak with their last loss coming to the Lakers, while Los Angeles has won three straight but is tied with three teams for the distinction as the worst spread bet in the NBA at 4-9 ATS.
The Lakers opened as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 226.5.
- The Lakers are 1-6 ATS in 7 home games this season.
- Portland is ranked 5th in points allowed per game this season.
- The UNDER has hit in Portland’s last five games (avg. combined score: 210.4).
Lakers Letting Bettors Down on the Spread
As predicted, the Lakers are struggling to cover the spread and are an ugly 1-6 ATS in seven home games this season. In their most recent game vs the Hawks, they opened as 11.5-point favorites but barely clung to the one-point victory against a team that is 3-11 SU in 14 games.
After that embarrassing loss by double digits to the Raptors, the Lakers acquired center Tyson Chandler and while he is past his prime, it’s likely not a coincidence that since his addition, LA has held teams to an average of 100.6 points per game,which is a far cry from their season average at 115.5.
I’m not ready to give the Lakers their due off a three-game sample size with Chandler in the lineup and I think they will be in tough to beat the Blazers again due to the backcourt matchup against Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum so I’ll likely be fading the Lakers again at this spread.
Blazers’ Defense Has Been their Key to Victory
Outside of the loss at home to the Lakers at the beginning of the month, the Blazers have been on a bit of a hot streak. At 10-3 ATS in 13 games, Portland has been the best spread bet in the NBA this season and is 3-1 SU and ATS as an underdog.
The Blazers have an average win margin of 14 points per game in their 10 wins this season but it’s the Blazers’ defense that has been the calling card for their success this year. The Trail Blazers are ranked fifth in points allowed per game (106.2), first in opponent field-goal percentage (42.6 percent) and seventh in opponent three-point percentage (33.5 percent).
This is why I think the Blazers are the better team and am not just fading the Lakers for something to do. Portland’s defense is legit, it’s winning games decisively and it’s 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games vs the Lakers. Don’t overcomplicate this by getting caught up in LeBron James’ greatness; make the smart wager.
Should You Take the UNDER?
The total opened at 227 (since dropped to 225) and trends are pointing to an UNDER. The UNDER has hit in Portland’s last five games with an average combined score of 210.4 points per game. As mentioned, the Lakers’ defense has picked up its intensity since getting Chandler off the scrap heap and the Blazers’ defense has been stellar all season. When you factor in that the total has gone UNDER in the Lakers’ last six games with an average combined score of 217.1 points per game, it’s hard to envision a 230-point game tonight.
My Pick Is…
To take the Blazers to cover the spread. I think Portland is the better team and should be favored in this matchup considering they own the second-best record in the Western Conference. The Lakers continue to be overrated and I’m sure their fans will think I’m hating but I’m merely pointing out that they’re overvalued by oddsmakers.
