Milwaukee and Portland will finish up their regular-season series tonight at the Fiserv Forum in Wisconsin, where the home side is favored by 6 points. The teams met back on November 6 in Portland in a game that the Blazers won by 15 points despite being 2-point dogs. At 11-6 ATS, Portland is the best bet in the NBA this season. The total opened at 226 points for these potent offenses.
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Bucks’ last six games (avg. combined score: 232.0).
- The total has gone OVER in three of the Trail Blazers’ last four games (avg. combined score: 227.75).
- The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at home vs teams with winning records.
Trail Blazers vs Bucks Game Center
Upset Win or Good Matchup?
Was the Trail Blazers’ win over the Bucks a couple of weeks ago just a betting upset or is there more to it that should persuade us to back the Blazers tonight? An outlier in the first meeting is that CJ McCollum had his best night of the season, putting up 40 points on the strength of five three-pointers and shooting a season-high 65.4 percent from the floor – 15 percentage points better than his season average.
In that game, Milwaukee got just 27 points from the bench, well under its season average of 34.1, while starters accounted for 76 points – 10 fewer than their No. 2 ranking of 86 points per game this season.
So what we saw, on Portland’s home court, was an anomaly for both teams as far as season averages go.
Home Cooking Has Benefited The Bucks
Milwaukee is an outstanding home bet at 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS this season. The Bucks are the top-scoring team in the NBA, scoring better than 120 points per game while shooting 48.4 percent from the floor.
MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.4 points and 13 rebounds per game at home. Both numbers are higher than his season averages and you can expect him to play a crucial role tonight. Like the rest of the Bucks team, he was below his season averages in the loss to Portland. Giannis is coming off a 29-point game vs Denver on Monday.
My Bet for Tonight
I’m backing the Bucks at home. They’ve only lost four games this season, one at home, and I don’t see Portland being a team that beats them for the second time. The Blazers, though, will be competitive.
I really like OVER 226 points in this game as both teams are trending OVER lately. The Bucks are 12-4 O/U this season overall and 7-2 O/U at home. Additionally, the total has gone OVER in three of Portland’s last four games with an average combined score of 227.8. With two of the top seven offenses in the Association on the floor tonight, I’m cool with betting the OVER.
