After a grueling road trip that saw them drop three straight, the Denver Nuggets bounced back at home vs the Heat and look to continue their winning ways tonight against the Sacramento Kings. The Nuggets are one of the best spread bets in the NBA and own the best spread record at home at 20-8 ATS in 28 games. The Kings are starting to get hot at the right time by winning five of their last six outings but have dropped four straight games at the Pepsi Center and seven of the last 10 in this matchup.
The Nuggets opened as 10-point favorites (since moved to -8) with a total of 231.
- The Kings are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 road games.
- The Nuggets own the best home spread record in the NBA (20-8 ATS in 28 games).
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Kings’ last 17 games (avg. combined score: 218.0).
Bettors Need to get Familiar with Nuggets Home Games
Sitting at 24-4 SU in 28 home games and trailing the Warriors by three games for the Western Conference lead, the Nuggets are showing that they’re not to be trifled with at the Pepsi Center. Denver has gone an astounding 18-1 SU in its last 19 home games (15-4 ATS) with the only blemish on its record coming against Golden State. The spread is hovering around 8 or 9 points depending on the sportsbook you use and bettors should know that Denver’s average winning margin in those games is 16.6 points and they won 12 of those games by double digits.
Thankfully for Nuggets backers, this game is at home because Denver dropped three straight on the road but rebounded at home in its last outing vs Miami. The Nuggets have also owned this matchup recently when played in the Rocky Mountains as Denver has won the last four games vs the Kings at the Pepsi Center. While running over the Kings hasn’t exactly been a reason to applaud a team in recent years, the fact that the Nuggets were double-digit favorites in each of those games and covered each time is worthy of a high-five to Nuggets backers.
The one drawback for the Nuggets’ chances is they will be without Gary Harris in the backcourt. His defensive presence could be a game changer but I do like that the Nuggets have Malik Beasley, Monte Morris and Will Barton waiting in the wings to scoop up those minutes. I think if you can get the Nuggets for 8 points or less on the spread, you need to lock that in.
Kings’ Road Woes Are Hard To Ignore
Although they’ve lost eight of their last 10 away from the Golden 1 Center, this isn’t the Kings of old who were perennial doormats of the NBA. The Kings sit eighth in the West at 30-26 and could break a postseason drought of 12 years if they continue at this pace. Now for the bad news: the Kings have stunk away from Sac-Town. They rank 27th in scoring defense on the road this season (116.6) while allowing the opposition to shoot over 35 percent from three on 34.3 attempts (ranked 27th).
That’s a recipe for disaster against a Nuggets squad that is one of the best shooting teams in the league on their court with Denver ranking first in field-goal percentage (49.3%) and sixth in three-point percentage (37.5%). Then comes the paint. The Kings are in the bottom five of the NBA in points allowed in the paint (51.4 points) while Denver is a top-five team that scores down low (53.2).
I’m not confident in any team going into Denver and winning (except for Golden State) and the fact that the Kings have lost their last four games at the Pepsi Center makes me very leery of taking a Kings cover bet at the 8-point spread.
Kings Have Been One Of The Best UNDER Teams In The League
The total opened at 230.5 and this game is a case of when strong opposite trends collide. For example, Kings games have led to a lot of UNDERs lately as the final score has fallen short of the total in 14 of Sacramento’s last 17 games (average combined score: 218.0) and in six of its last seven games on the road. On the flip side, the OVER has hit in seven of the Nuggets’ last eight games at home and in 10 of their last 15 games overall. With so many conflicting trends, it’s hard to pick a side so I may steer clear of the total, but bettors should also know that the OVER has hit in four of the last five games in this matchup.
My Pick Is…
To take the Nuggets to win and cover the spread. I’ve been getting burned lately by home teams with large spreads but I think this one shows that it’s pretty obvious to take the Nuggets. They have been steamrolling the opposition at the Pepsi Center and while I think the Kings play hard and will be good at some point down the road, I don’t think this is the game where they make a statement.
