Although the Sacramento Kings are one of the best bets in the NBA and Golden State went 1-6 ATS before the break, the Warriors sit as an 11.5-point favorite ahead of tipoff. Oddsmakers appear to be completely ignoring the fact that Sacramento is 3-0 ATS vs Golden State this season at +7.5, +7 and +6.5. The total is 235.
Standout Stats
- Sacramento is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games vs Golden State, including 3-0 this season. The Kings are one of three teams with 34 ATS wins this season, tied for first in the NBA.
- Sacramento is currently on a 6-1 ATS run, but is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.
- Golden State is 0-3 ATS in its last three games coming out of the all-star break and 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
- The Kings have not been higher than a 13-point underdog this season but are 10-2 ATS in this spot since March 2017. Golden State is 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS as a favorite of 13 points or more this season.
- Over the past 15 games, Sacramento has allowed 110.7 points per game while Golden State has allowed 111.8 points per game.
- The Kings have the No. 3 three-point defense in the NBA and 37.3 percent of Golden State’s field-goal attempts come from three-point land. The Warriors shot 44.7, 37.5 and 29.4 percent from three in the previous meetings this season.
My Pick For Kings-Warriors
Kings +11.5
I’m sticking with the Kings to cover this huge spread in Oakland.
It doesn’t really make sense to me why the line is so high given the success the Kings have had in covering vs Golden State, the problem Golden State has had covering big spreads and covering at home, and the fact that Sacramento is one of the best bets in the league.
Any time you bet against the Warriors, you stand to have the buyer’s remorse of “Why would I EVER do that?” but this seems like a great spot to get in on the Kings to keep it within 12.
