For the first time since the 2012-13 season, the Denver Nuggets are returning to the playoffs as they host the San Antonio Spurs for Game 1 at the Pepsi Center. Both teams have been mediocre down the stretch with Denver splitting its last 10 contests and San Antonio winning six of its last 10. The Spurs and Nuggets split their four-game season series and Denver is a 5.5-point favorite in this game with the total Sportsbook at 211 points.
Standout Stats
- The Nuggets were just OK in the final stages of the 2018-19 campaign, sporting a record of 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS through their last 10 games with an average winning margin of 10.8. Meanwhile, the Spurs were slightly better, going 6-4 SU but 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 with an average winning margin of 13.5. They were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three.
- With two strong defensive squads coming together, it is no surprise that the UNDER has been the play to make for these teams in the latter days of the regular season. The total went UNDER in six of Denver’s last 10 contests with an average combined score of 207.7. Similarly, San Antonio has gone UNDER in seven of its last 10 matches with an average combined score of 218.1. The Spurs and Nuggets went UNDER in all four of their meetings this year with an average combined score of 205.
- Denver has scuffled offensively over its last 10 contests, scoring just 103.4 ppg for the No. 27 mark in the league and posting the third-worst three-point shooting percentage over that span at 30.9. However, as bad as the offense has been, the defense has been very good, allowing 104.3 ppg to rate third in the Association, and they slow the pace down to the point that their foes are only taking 88.6 shots per game, ranking sixth.
- Similar to the Nuggets, the Spurs haven’t been filling the net, ranking 20th in the league with 110.6 ppg through their last 10 games. But they have made the most of their opportunities, hitting 48.2 percent of their shots to rank sixth. On the defensive side of the ball, San Antonio has restricted opponents to 107.5 ppg down the stretch and ranked seventh in opponent three-point percentage at 32.7.
My Best Bet for San Antonio vs Denver
UNDER 211
San Antonio and Denver have had their difficulties filling the basket in the final stages of the season but have been quite strong defensively. This style of play by both teams has resulted in the UNDER being a profitable play and all four of their meetings this season went UNDER with an average combined score of 205. I think there will be a feeling-out process in the Sportsbook game of the series and the total will go UNDER.
