Bucks Big Home Favorites Over Downtrodden Spurs

The Spurs are heading towards their first losing season since 1997, and it doesn’t get any easier for them Saturday at Milwaukee. Considering Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in their last six against San Antonio, a double-digit spread shouldn’t deter bettors from siding with the Bucks.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Bucks are possibly the league’s most dominant home team, and top team overall, while the Spurs are having a down year, especially struggling on the road. The Bucks average winning margin at home is 13.9 points, but only opened as 11.5-point favorites Saturday. The total opened at 227.5 points, a compromise between Milwaukee’s recent tendency of playing to the UNDER a lot and the total going OVER in most of San Antonio’s recent contests.

San Antonio News & Notes

No, you’re not reading it wrong; the Spurs do currently have a losing record, which is something they haven’t finished a season with in more than 20 years.

There’s a lot of basketball left to be played this season, but there’s cause for concern that this season will continue to see more losses than wins: the Spurs are just 20th in defensive rating this season and allow the sixth-most points in the NBA.

Even more worrisome is San Antonio’s play on the road this season. The Spurs are just 4-10 SU and 6-7-1 ATS in road games this season, not only headed for their third straight year with an abysmal road record, but they’re also on pace to have their lowest road winning percentage since the 1996-97 season.

The odds are against them getting a win on Saturday as well, as they’re facing a dominant Milwaukee team that’s lost twice at home all season.

Milwaukee News & Notes

After getting humbled by the 76ers on Christmas Day, the Bucks responded by winning the following four games, with their defense continuing to just smother opponents.

Milwaukee has held their opponents to 104 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games, all victories, while giving up an average of just 98.1 points over that span.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has continued his dominant ways, averaging 28 points, 12.5 rebounds and 6.4 assists over his last 10 games, while Khris Middleton has stepped up 19.6 points per game over that same stretch, but the Bucks’ offense has quieted down a notch, leading to the UNDER hitting in six of their last eight games.

The Bucks may see a more high-scoring game against San Antonio on Saturday, as the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings between these teams.

Betting Pick: Bucks -11.5

It’s a big spread, but the Spurs are terrible on the road, while the Bucks are possibly the toughest team in the NBA at home. I’ll take Milwaukee to cover at home.