Will the Spurs’ Road Woes Catch Up To Them vs T-Wolves?

Coming off an impressive road win over the Mavericks, the San Antonio Spurs travel to the Twin Cities to face the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Spurs are used to owning this matchup as they’re 15-2 SU in their last 17 games vs the T-Wolves but have dropped their last two games at the Target Center, including a 39-point beatdown back at the end of November. The ’Wolves, on the other hand, are still trying to figure things out with new head coach Ryan Saunders and are coming off their own 42-point shellacking from the Sixers.

The T-Wolves opened as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 225.

Spurs vs Timberwolves Game Center

Spurs Have Been Night And Day For Home/Road Splits

Although they have seemed to right the ship and moved back into playoff contention in the Western Conference, the fly in the ointment for the Spurs is how they perform on the road this year. The Spurs are 8-14 SU in 22 road games and when they face Western Conference opponents, that mark drops to 4-12 SU in 16 games. Their three-point shooting dips by five percentage points when playing on the road compared to home and they give up 113.2 points per away game in contrast to 105.6 points at AT&T Center. That may not seem like a huge difference to the average bettor but it’s enormous when it comes to wins and losses.

However, those numbers may not paint the true picture of how the Spurs have played recently as they’ve gone 16-9 SU in their last 25 games and it starts with how well they’re shooting the ball. San Antonio has jumped to first in the NBA in three-point shooting despite ranking last in attempts and also ranks fifth in field-goal percentage.

I’m not willing to write off the Spurs just because they’re playing on the road because I still think with head coach Gregg Popovich’s system, they can beat any team on a given night. I expect the duo of DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge to lead the way as they’re combining to average just under 41 points per game while DeRozan is averaging a career-high 6.4 assists per game.

I Still Need Convincing from the T-Wolves

No one can deny that Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins have a ton of talent but I’ll argue to the death about their lack of consistency. Just take a look at Towns’ game log from his last two outings. When the Timberwolves played against the Pelicans, Towns went for 27 points and 27 rebounds (not a typo) and was the best player on the floor. The next game against the Sixers, he put up only 13 points and three rebounds. That type of fluctuation from your best player must be frustrating for T-Wolves fans because I can tell you that as a bettor, it’s annoying as hell.

That’s why when you see that the T-Wolves are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games with two days off, it shows that extra prep is not enough to push these young guns into contention and maybe Jimmy Butler was on to something.

That’s why I’m fading the Timberwolves tonight because it’s too much of a crapshoot to depend on them to win any game, even at home. The nail in the coffin for my decision was seeing that the Timberwolves are dead last in the NBA in defending the three-point shot and are playing against a team that leads the league in that category.

When the T-Wolves take the Court, the OVER seems to Follow 

The total opened at 225 and totals bettors have been making bank taking OVERs in T-Wolves games. The OVER has hit in 13 of Minnesota’s last 15 games with an average combined score of 228.2 points per game. The OVER has also hit in four of the last five games in this matchup.

My Pick Is…

To take the Spurs moneyline. I think San Antonio is the better team and I’m willing to overlook the road struggles in this specific matchup. The Spurs’ three-point shooting sways me because while I feel the Timberwolves will keep it close, they’ll likely fall short because they can’t defend the perimeter.