After one of the more memorable games of the NBA season, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs will have round 2 tonight when they take the court at Chesapeake Energy Arena. These two teams squared off on Thursday and it led to an insane double-overtime result with the Spurs ultimately ending up on top 154-147. By falling short in San Antonio, the Thunder have dropped three straight games for the first time since the start of the regular season.
The Thunder opened as 5.5-point favorites (since moved to -4.5) with a total of 224.5.
- The Spurs are 3-6 SU in their last 9 road games.
- The Thunder are last in the NBA in three-point percentage (32.6 percent).
- The OVER has hit in 6 of the Thunder’s last 8 games at home.
Issues Still Exist when Spurs Play on the Road
If this game was in San Antonio, I’d have no problem taking the Spurs again but they've been a different team on the road this season. San Antonio is 7-13 SU in 20 road games this year and the Spurs’ scoring output drops by four points per game. Dating back to last season, the Spurs are 8-28 SU in 34 games away from the AT&T Center.
However, one of the main reasons for the recent resurgence is that the Spurs are scoring the ball at an incredible rate. Since the start of December, they’re third in the NBA in points per game and first in both field-goal percentage (51.2) and three-point percentage (42.4) on the least amount of shots. This means they’re back to utilizing a proven ball movement system implemented by head coach Gregg Popovich that can’t just be dismissed.
Well, I’m dismissing it just for this game because the Spurs have been terrible on the road and have dropped five of the last six games at Chesapeake Energy Arena.
Recent Struggles Aside, Thunder Play Well at Home
By losing their last two games at home, there were some troubling signs in those games against the Timberwolves and Wizards that may carry over to this game and it has to do with Russell Westbrook. Look, don’t get me wrong, I love me some Westbrook with his ability to stuff the stat sheet like when he picked up 24 assists against the Spurs but I don’t think it’s out of line to say his shooting habits could use some work.
Russ is only averaging 23 percent from three-point range on just under five attempts per game and against the Spurs on Thursday, shot a woeful 0-4 from three-point range and two for five from the free-throw line. His inability to hit a deep shot has dragged the Thunder’s overall three-point percentage down to 32 percent, which is last in the NBA.
Totals Bettors Should Eye The OVER
OVER bettors were handsomely rewarded when these two teams combined to score 301 points on Thursday and I expect this one to go OVER the total again. The total opened at 224.5 and the OVER has hit in six of the Thunder’s last eight games at home with an average combined score of 225.8 points per game. The OVER has also hit in five of the Spurs' last seven games with an average combined score of 228.7.
My Pick Is…
To take the Thunder to win and cover the spread. I think most of the Spurs players will be gassed after that double overtime game and then having to travel to OKC will only add more fatigue.
