After a tough home loss to the Clippers, the San Antonio Spurs will lick their wounds and embark on a quick two-game road trip with their first stop in the City of Brotherly Love to face the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Spurs have been hit-or-miss on the road this season but have been a decent spread bet in away games lately by covering in five of their last seven away from San Antone. The Sixers, on the other hand, have been dominant at home and are 8-1 SU in nine games at Wells Fargo Arena when hosting Western Conference teams.
The Sixers opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 226.5.
- The Sixers are 20-5 SU in 25 home games this season.
- The Spurs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.
- The UNDER has hit in 4 of the Sixers’ last 5 games.
Fading the Sixers at Home is a Risky Proposition
At 20-5 SU in 25 home games this season, the Sixers have been one of the best home teams in the NBA. Philly averages 119 points per game at Wells Fargo Arena and dating back to last year is 44-8 SU in the last 52 games at home.
I’ve mentioned before how well the Sixers move the ball (third in the league in assists) but they may be in trouble tonight with Ben Simmons under the weather and Jimmy Butler suffering a wrist injury. Both are questionable for tonight’s tilt and bettors should monitor that before placing any large wagers.
Even with their status up in the air, this game will be decided down low with Joel Embiid. The center is averaging 29.2 points per game this month and won’t be limited to only 13 points as he was when these teams faced each other in San Antonio back in December. The Spurs rank 19th in points allowed in the paint in road games and although they shoot a great percentage from three-point range, the Sixers are a top-five team in defending the perimeter. I expect this spread to increase in favor of Philadelphia so I would get on this now before it becomes unbettable.
Spurs Have Been Getting It Done Lately in Away Games
With San Antonio sitting at 9-14 SU in 23 road games, bettors may tend to look at that record and immediately want to write off the Spurs. But actually, they’ve been fairly solid in that spot recently, winning five of their last seven road games while having an identical spread record. San Antonio’s shooting is the obvious standout for this squad as it ranks dead last in three-point attempts (24.3) but has the best shooting percentage (40.4) in the NBA.
The Spurs are well rested coming into this matchup and have fared well when given two or more days’ rest at 6-2 SU in eight games this season. Do I think you should bet your bankroll on that trend? Absolutely not but it’s worth noting.
I’m likely fading the Spurs in this one because a lot of their road wins lately are against teams with losing records like the T-Wolves, Mavericks and Pistons who are not nearly as good as the Sixers this season. Factoring in that the Spurs have failed to cover in four of the last five games in this matchup, I’m sticking with the Sixers to win by five.
Sixers Games Leading To UNDERs
The total opened at 226.5 and trends are pointing to an UNDER in Philly. The UNDER has hit in four of the Sixers’ last five games with an average combined score of 226 and while I know that obviously matches the total line, the average is huge because of a 256 combined final score against the T-Wolves.
The Spurs’ defense is way better than the T-Wolves’ and if you removed that game from the equation, the average combined score hovers around 218. The UNDER has also hit in five of the Spurs’ last six games with two days off between games so that’s enough to convince me that this will be a low-scoring contest.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. I suspect that the Sixers will hold out Simmons or Butler (or both) in this game, which means the Sixers will need to work even harder for points. There are too many stats to show that these teams will likely fall short of the total and even if those two end up playing, the Spurs don’t take enough three-pointers to justify taking an OVER when the total is above 225.
