We can’t say we saw it coming but the Los Angeles Clippers are the best home bet early in the NBA season, going 6-1 SU and ATS through their first seven home games. Tonight they welcome the San Antonio Spurs, who have lost four of their last five games and are 2-4 ATS in their six road games this season. The total opened at 219.5 with the Clippers as a 5.5-point favorite.
- LA is 6-1 SU and ATS at home this season.
- San Antonio is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games on the road.
- The Spurs haven’t scored 100 points in any of the four games since Pau Gasol’s injury.
Fouls Will Be Part of the Story
The San Antonio Spurs are committing the fewest fouls in the league at 18.2 per game, however, the Clippers are forcing opponents into 24.9 fouls a game, which is fourth in the NBA. Why is this even more important tonight? Well, the Clippers are second in the NBA with a free-throw percentage of 82.7.
Mike Callahan is the head official tonight. He is one of the most senior officials in the league and his crews typically call fewer fouls than average (42.2 per game) with an even split between home and road teams. In his 11 games this year, the average combined score is 229.5.
Clippers Scoring at an Unreal Clip
During their recent hot stretch, the Clippers are putting up a ton of points against some pretty good teams. LA is averaging 118.8 points per game in its last five games, including wins over Golden State, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Orlando. But scoring is nothing new for the Clippers this year – they’re the No. 5 scoring offense in the league at 116.62 points per game.
Tobias Harris (20.4), Lou Williams (19.1) and Danilo Gallinari (19.0) are all averaging at least 19 points per game while Montrezl Harrell is chipping in 14.5 off the bench. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 10.2 points per game and has been quite competent starting for the injured Avery Bradley.
Spurs Haven’t Cracked 100 points Since Losing Gasol
Pop’s Spurs have been anemic offensively in their last four outings, scoring 88, 96, 99 and 96 points while going 1-3 ATS. All four of those games went UNDER the closing total. Incidentally, those games coincide with the injury to Pau Gasol and the loss of his seven-foot presence under the basket.
Gasol is officially listed as out indefinitely with a foot injury so San Antonio will once again have to find a way to match up under the basket. Jakob Poeltl has started in his absence, except in the win vs Houston, and played a season-high 19 minutes in the loss to Phoenix on Wednesday.
My Pick for Tonight
I’m jumping on the Clippers at -5.5 before the line begins to creep higher. The Clippers are scoring 53.5 points per game in the paint, which is the sixth-highest total in the NBA. Poeltl will be challenged significantly to stop this LA offense and I think that will be the difference in the Clippers covering the spread at home once again.
