The Los Angeles Lakers will need to regroup without some key players as they host the San Antonio Spurs tonight. The Lakers are 0-2 SU and ATS to start the season and, after an embarrassing fourth-quarter fight with the Rockets, have to adjust their starting lineup without Rajon Rondo or Brandon Ingram. The Lakers, who have won four straight vs the Spurs, opened as 1.5-point favorites (since moved to +1) with the total Sportsbook at 221.5.
- The Lakers are shooting 24 percent from three-point range this season.
- The Lakers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Spurs (avg. winning margin: 8.2 points).
- The OVER has hit in 9 of the last 11 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 212.7).
Lack of Three-Point Shooting Doesn’t give Lakers a Spitting Chance
The spit seen around the NBA world, the Loogie Lakers could be in trouble tonight with both Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram being suspended for this tilt. Los Angeles has fallen to the Blazers and Rockets in its first two games and this should’ve been LeBron’s fear of going to the Western Conference as it’s a gauntlet of tough teams every night.
One of the main shortcomings for the Lakers has been their lack of three-point shooting as they’re averaging a woeful 24 percent from deep, which is second-worst in the NBA. You know it’s bad when, this early in the season, Lonzo Ball owns the best three-point field-goal percentage on the team at 41 percent.
LeBron James is doing his best to keep his team afloat on the scoring end as he’s averaging 25 points per game but is getting almost no secondary help from the young guns of Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and Ball, who are combining to average only 37.5 points per game.
Although the Lakers are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four games in this matchup, losing two key players like Ingram and Rondo for this tilt should make it very difficult to trust the Lakers on the spread. I’ve written about how I’m fading the Lakers at any chance I get over the first 15 to 20 games of the season and this matchup is prime for a spread loss.
For what it’s worth, LeBron-led teams haven’t started 0-3 SU in a season since his first two years in the NBA.
Spurs’ Road Woes Well Documented
The new-look Spurs may be flying under the radar these days but the infrastructure cannot be overlooked when capping NBA games. San Antonio is only committing nine turnovers per game, which ranks first in the NBA, while getting a combined 44.5 points per game from its new one-two punch of DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge.
That being said, through two games, they’ve been very un-Spurs-like from a defensive standpoint as they’ve allowed an average of 114 points per game to the Timberwolves and Blazers while getting almost no rim protection, averaging only four swats per game (ranked 22nd). It’s early so those numbers may correct themselves but it’s worth monitoring as oddsmakers and bettors still adjust to the new-look Spurs.
Although the Spurs’ recent history against the Lakers is abysmal, it’s hard to overlook San Antonio’s overall history against the Lake-Show as the Spurs are 16-6 SU in the last 22 games in this matchup and 9-2 SU in the last 11 games when playing at Staples Center. Lakers backers will point out that the Spurs are 0-12 SU in their last 12 road games but based on the matchups and the absences of Rondo and Ingram, I’m confident the Spurs will leave with the W.
Is Another OVER in store?
The total opened at 221.5 and while the trends state that the OVER has hit in nine of the last 11 games in this matchup, I would suggest taking the UNDER. The average combined score in those games was 212.7 points per game and the total has only gone OVER 221.5 points in four of those games. Given how the Lakers have been shooting this season and the slower pace from the Spurs, I expect this game to fall short of the total.
My Pick Is…
Fading LeBron and the Lakers. I’ve already planted my flag on this corner prior to the season starting and I expect the spread to continue moving throughout the day to make the Spurs larger favorites.
