Having faced each other less than two weeks ago, the Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets will renew acquaintances again tonight in their final matchup of the season. The Raptors fell 106-103 at home to Nuggets and have dropped four of their last seven games while Denver has quietly moved into first place in the Western Conference and is 11-3 SU in 14 home outings this season.
The Raptors opened as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 216.
- The Raptors are 12-4 SU in 16 road games this season.
- Denver is third in points allowed per game this season (103.5).
- The UNDER has hit in 6 of the Raptors last 8 games.
Raptors vs Nuggets Game Center
Road Games Have Come Easy For the Raps
At 12-4 SU in 16 road games, it’s safe to say when the Raptors come to your town, they’re likely going to be favored. The Raps own the best record in the NBA at 23-8 SU in 31 games and are fourth in the NBA in points scored per game while also ranking 10th in points allowed per contest.
The one part that troubles me for wanting to back the Raptors tonight has been their injury woes and how they’ve fared in this matchup. Kyle Lowry missed their last game against Portland and is questionable for tonight while Kawhi Leonard may not be fully recovered from a bruised hip that saw him miss two games. Toronto has also failed to cover the spread in the last five games in this matchup and is 8-7-1 ATS in 16 road games this season.
Nuggets’ Defense Propelling them in West Standings
Winning nine of their last 11 games, the Nuggets are becoming one of the best teams to watch on NBA League Pass and mainly because of their slick passing and defense. The Nuggets rank third in points allowed per game (103.5) and second in opponent three-point percentage (32.2) and have held teams to less than 100 points in 11 of their 28 games this year.
Opponents have been having a rough go when having to play in altitude with the Nuggets winning 11 of their 14 games at home and covering the spread in 10 of those outings. I like the Nuggets to win and cover in this spot given how well they play at home and the fact they beat this team already when they matched up in Toronto. Although they’ll be without Gary Harris and Paul Millsap, they’ve seen contributions from Monte Morris and Torrey Craig, who both scored over 12 points each when they hosted the Thunder on Friday.
Scoreboard Operators Expected to Have Easy Night
The total opened at 216 and based on how these two teams play defense, a low-scoring affair is projected to take place. The final combined score when these teams locked horns in Toronto was 209 and the UNDER has hit in six of the Raptors last eight games with an average combined score of 214.3 points per game. That margin may give totals bettors some pause but considering the Nuggets’ defense has held opponents to less than 100 points in their last six home games, I like that trend to continue.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. Too many injury concerns on both sides and the defenses are too strong to think either team will go off offensively.
