The James Harden Show returns home tonight to face the Toronto Raptors with the Raps looking to cool off the NBA MVP front-runner. Harden is coming off a 61-point game at the Garden and has scored 50 or more points in three of the Rockets’ last five games. The Raptors have not fared well on the road lately (3-7 SU in 10 games) but will have Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup and he’ll face the enormous task of stopping the greatest offensive performance since Wilt Chamberlain.
The Raptors opened as 2-point favorites with a total of 229.5.
- The Raptors are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
- James Harden is averaging 45.3 points per game in January.
- The OVER has hit in 6 of the Rockets’ last 8 games at home.
Rockets vs Raptors Game Center
Raptors’ Depleted Lineup has Led to Road Losses Lately
Although the Raptors have tremendous depth and are tied with the Bucks for the best record in the NBA, they’ve scuffled when playing away from the T-Dot. The Raptors are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games as a favorite.
One of the reasons may be the lack of continuity in the starting lineup as Kawhi Leonard has missed pockets of time during that 10-game stretch and they’re still relying a little too heavily on Greg Monroe down low while Jonas Valanciunius recovers from a thumb injury.
Well, the full roster (outside of Valanciunus) will be back out there tonight and Leonard’s scoring may not be as required as his perimeter defense. Leonard and OG Anunoby will be relied on heavily to stop James Harden. Leonard may be a world-class defender but even he hasn’t had to face an offensive player that is balling at this level.
The Raptors, when fully stocked, can compete and beat almost any team in the league as they rank in the top 10 in both points scored and points allowed this season. The one phase where Toronto may get in trouble is defending the three-pointer as it ranks 19th in opponent three-point percentage, which plays right into the Rockets’ hands. Houston has taken an insane 50.3 threes per game in 11 games this month and is shooting 34.7 percent.
It’s James Harden’s Show, We’re Just Spectators
If you haven’t watched James Harden play lately, can you truly call yourself a basketball fan? The guy is making a joke of what offensive players are allowed to do in an NBA game and I’m here for it. Harden is averaging 44.7 points and 17.3 three-point attempts per game in January, and is riding an unassisted point streak that makes you wonder how the Rockets are even competitive. But that’s the beauty in Harden’s game because he’s still averaging almost eight assists per contest while the Rockets lineup gets back to full health.
Speaking of health, Chris Paul is officially out for tonight’s game as the point guard has missed 16 games but it hasn’t seemed to affect the Rockets in the standings as much as it should as they’re 11-5 SU without the Point God in the lineup. With or without Paul, I don’t expect Houston to change its recent game plan of Harden taking most of the shots.
Although I can go on and on about Harden and how much fun it is to watch him go for 50 points every night, I’m not convinced this formula can work against a team like the Raptors. Toronto is one of the few teams that can throw multiple defenders with length at the Beard and with him playing like he’s the only player on the floor at times, it can lead to a lot of ball-watching from other four other teammates.
Even when Harden has scored 50 points this season, they’re only 3-2 SU in those games, which shows that other players will need to step up to take down the Raps, which I don’t see happening at this stage.
OVER ALERT
The total opened at 229.5 and trends are pointing to an OVER in this tilt. The OVER has hit in six of the Rockets’ last eight games at home with an average combined score of 242 points per game. These teams are combining to average over 83 three-point attempts per game in January and considering that the OVER has hit in four of the Raptors’ last five games on the road, I like a scorefest at the Toyota Center tonight.
My Pick Is…
To take the Raptors to win and cover the spread. Although the Harden Show is a spectacle to watch, it’s a lot of filler. The Raps have the overall better (and healthier) roster and Kawhi Leonard should be fully ready to go after a four-game absence to rest his quad.
