Bucks Try to Snap Skid Against Nemesis Toronto

It’s been a down year for the Raptors (13-15 SU, 12-16 ATS), but they still seem to have Milwaukee’s number. Toronto shoots for its seventh win in its last 10 meetings with the Bucks (16-12 SU, 13-15 ATS), who are mired in an 0-4 SU and ATS slump.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Milwaukee closed as a 6-point favorite at most sportsbooks when these teams met Tuesday, and the total was 236. Although the Raptors won that game outright and the game went OVER the total, oddsmakers opened the Bucks as slightly larger favorites and dropped the total by 2.5 points.

Toronto News & Notes

Two days after a humiliating loss to the Timberwolves, Toronto used a smaller lineup to bounce back Tuesday with a 124-113 victory over the Bucks. Six-foot-seven forward OG Anunoby returned from injury and started in place of center Aron Baynes, meaning that no player in the Raptors’ starting five was taller than six-foot-nine.

Despite the size disadvantage, Toronto held its own throughout the contest, outrebounding Milwaukee 44-41 and getting outscored by just four points in the paint. Guard Fred VanVleet posted his fifth 30-point outing of the season, scoring 33 points on 22 field-goal attempts, and the Raptors knocked down 17 three-pointers.

Toronto also played nearly the entire second half without point guard Kyle Lowry, who rolled his ankle late in the first half and left the game early in the third quarter. Lowry was on his way to a monster game before the injury, collecting 18 points, six rebounds, six assists and two steals in 22 minutes of action. His status for Thursday’s rematch was uncertain as of Wednesday night.

Milwaukee News & Notes

Jrue Holiday can’t return fast enough for the Bucks, who have struggled to get stops without their defensive specialist on the perimeter. Milwaukee has allowed at least 112 points in five of its six games without Holiday, a big reason why the Bucks are in an 0-4 SU and ATS skid. It’s Milwaukee’s first four-game losing streak in nearly two years, dating back to its 2019 Eastern Conference finals loss to the Raptors.

The status of Holiday, who is reportedly recovering from COVID-19, was uncertain as of Wednesday night. Bryn Forbes has had five double-digit scoring outings as Holiday’s replacement in the starting lineup, but he has recorded just one assist and nine rebounds during that span. The playmaking duties have fallen to Khris Middleton, who had averaged 7.5 assists in his previous four games before failing to record a dime Tuesday against the Raps.

Thanks largely to Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee’s offense hasn’t taken as much of a step back during the slump. Antetokounmpo scored 34 points Tuesday and came within two assists of recording his second straight triple-double as Milwaukee scored at least 113 points for the 12th time in its last 13 games. The Bucks are 9-3-1 to the OVER during that span.

Betting Pick: Bucks -6.5

Milwaukee is too good to stay in this funk for much longer, and 15 of the Bucks’ 16 wins this season have come by seven points or more.