After righting the ship and evening up the series at one game apiece, the Toronto Raptors head to the whimsical land of Orlando to face the Magic in Game 3. The Magic’s second half of the season was fueled by defense and efficient shooting and they finished 9-1 SU in 10 home games after the all-star break. The Raptors were a decent road team throughout the regular season but went 1-1 in two games at Amway Center this year.
The Raptors opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 210.
STANDOUT STATS
- Game 2 was a nice bounce back for the Raptors after getting stunned in Game 1. The Raptors held the Magic to 37 percent shooting and 26.5 percent from behind the arc and only 82 points. The Magic were also subpar down low as they were outscored 52-36 in the paint and only got six points from all-star center Nikola Vucevic.
- The Raptors offense exploded in Game 2 and a huge part of that was Kawhi Leonard. Leonard was aggressive from the Sportsbook tip and finished with 37 points on 15 of 22 shooting while hitting 50 percent of three-point attempts. Kawhi wasn’t really the issue in Game 1 as he still scored 25 but Kyle Lowry was able to rebound from a horrible opener. Lowry had 22 points and seven assists and his defensive effort limited point guards DJ Augustin and Michael Carter-Williams to 17 points total.
- Although the Magic have been a below average offensive team for most of the season, their defense has been spectacular this year and since the all-star break, they were one of the best in the NBA. After the break, the Magic held teams to 106 points per game (23 games) and that number dropped to 102 in home games. They went 9-1 SU in home games since the all-star game while holding teams to 43.8 percent from the field (ranked fifth) and 28.2 percent from behind the arc (ranked first).
- Oddsmakers had caught on to the Magic’s decent play in the latter stages of the year as they haven’t been a home underdog since February 28th despite having a losing record at the time. When tabbed as a home dog this season, the Magic were 9-9 SU and had some huge wins over the likes of the Raptors, Rockets, Warriors and Jazz.
- The UNDER may be another profitable endeavor for this matchup as it’s now hit in five of the last six games when the Magic and Raptors take the court and those games had an average combined score of 204.3. When these teams face each other in Orlando, the UNDER has cashed in eight straight games dating back to 2015.
My Best Bet for Raptors vs Magic
OVER 210
While I tend to think the Magic are a decent defensive team and will be jacked-up for their first home playoff game since 2012, this is not a good matchup for them. Game 2 stuck to the script of how most bettors expected this series to go and the Raptors' offensive talent was overwhelming for Orlando’s defense.
That being said, coming into the postseason, the Magic were shooting the lights out in home games as they averaged 116.8 points per game while ranking seventh in field goal percentage and fifth in three-point percentage after the all-star break. I think the Raptors should cover the spread but I’d rather go with the OVER and bank on the Magic’s offense blowing up in front of its home crowd.
