After dropping back-to-back games, the Toronto Raptors face the real threat of losing their third straight contest when they visit the Boston Celtics tonight. The Raptors and Celtics are the top two favorites to win the Eastern Conference this season and the Raptors drew first blood in this matchup when they beat the Celtics in the second game of the year. Boston has been up and down, dropping four of its last six games, but is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in five home games this season.
The Celtics opened as 2.5-point favorites (since moved to -1.5) with a total of 214.
- The Raptors are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.
- The Celtics are ranked first in the NBA in opponent three-point percentage (31.2 percent).
- The UNDER has hit in 7 of the Celtics’ last 9 games at home.
Raptors vs Celtics Game Center
Celtics’ Defense Continues to be Class of NBA
Boston may not be getting the results in the standings that it should, at 8-6 SU and 5-9 ATS, but one thing is for certain, it can play some defense. The Celtics are ranked near the top of all the impactful defensive categories like opponent points per game (2nd), field-goal percentage (3rd) and three-point percentage (1st).
They’ve also done well when a favorite at home at 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as faves at TD Garden (including playoffs) and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games in Beantown vs teams with winning records.
The one part where the C’s struggle is on the offense as they rank 24th in points per game, which is a cause for concern when you see they rank 14th in shots per game. That has led to the Celtics ranking 28th in field-goal percentage and when playing a team like the Raptors, Boston could be in trouble to make shots. Despite all of this, I still like the Celtics to cover the spread and win this game.
Raptors Have Fared Well as Road Dog
Toronto’s most recent game vs Detroit was a huge red flag for Raptors backers as the Dinos had a 19-point lead and blew it by being outscored 29-16 in the fourth quarter. Kawhi Leonard was shut down for the most part by Pistons wing Stanley Johnson, which showed that strong perimeter defenders can frustrate the Klaw.
To be fair, the Raptors didn’t have Serge Ibaka in the lineup and Danny Green left early in the third quarter with a back strain. Both are expected back in the lineup tonight, which should boost Toronto’s ability to stretch the floor. The Raptors will need them to step up from three-point range because they rank 21st in three-point percentage and are one of three teams with winning records to rank in the 20s in that category (Oklahoma City and Denver are the other two).
If bettors want to back Toronto tonight, they should know the Raptors are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 3-1 SU in their last four games in this matchup. I think the Raps will be in tough to get the win tonight so I’ll be fading them this time around.
TD Garden is a Boon for UNDER Bettors
The total opened at 214 and trends are pointing to an UNDER. The Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the league and the UNDER has hit in seven of their last nine games at home with an average combined score of 194.2 points per game. When you factor in that the UNDER has hit in eight of the last 11 games in this matchup (average combined score 198.7), it’s hard to envision a shootout in Beantown.
My Pick Is…
To take the Celtics -1.5-point spread. The Celtics, on paper, are the better team and should be plenty motivated to take down the Raptors to catch them for the division lead. The Celtics’ defense is special and while I think the Raptors have some of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, matching up with Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum is no easy task.
