Two teams enter and one team will leave with a loss. The early slate of NBA games doesn’t usually have high stakes but bettors and fans will be treated to a clash of unbeaten squads when the Toronto Raptors take on the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Both teams are 6-0 SU and have been steamrolling opponents, owning average win margins over 10 points per game this season. The Raptors are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing in Milwaukee and opened as 2.5-point favorites with a total of 222.
- The Bucks are ranked 4th in points allowed per game (103.3).
- The Raptors are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Milwaukee.
- The OVER has hit in the last 3 games in this matchup.
The Bucks’ Defense is No Joke
The arrival of head coach Mike Budenholzer to Milwaukee cannot be glossed over when considering why the Bucks are off to a hot start. The Deer were 16th in points allowed per game last season at 106.8 points per game but he’s got them playing at a high level defensively as they rank fourth in points allowed per game, first in opponents’ field-goal percentage (39.6 percent) and third in opponents’ three-point percentage (30.7 percent). The only current knock on their defense is they don’t force a ton of turnovers, averaging only six steals per game (ranked 24th), and opponents have only averaged 12.2 turnovers per game (ranked 24th) but that’s just nitpicking.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 25 points per game to lead the Bucks in scoring but is grabbing an insane 14.2 rebounds and 1.7 blocks. However, the Bucks will need to look elsewhere for dominance as he is in concussion protocol from a knock to the head vs the Magic and has been ruled out for this game. Bettors could be in a tricky spot as all the defensive attention will be focused on his running mate, Khris Middleton, who is averaging 21.8 points per game and will be the center of Milwaukee’s offense.
Raptors Have Fared Well in Milwaukee
Although the Raptors have made a few changes to the roster with the arrival of Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, this squad should be very familiar with tonight’s opponent. The Raptors go to Milwaukee twice a year and faced them in a grueling opening-round playoff series in 2016. That’s why when you see they’ve gone 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in the Cheesehead State, it’s understandable to see why they are the favorites.
This is the first time Toronto has started a season 6-0 SU and the team ranks seventh in both points scored per game and points allowed per game. The duo of Kyle Lowry and Leonard are playing lights-out defensively and averaging 46.4 points per game. But Leonard and OG Anunoby will be out for tonight’s game so the rest of the Raptors roster will need to step up. Six players are averaging double digits in points and with Leonard and OG out, Danny Green will need to play his usual brand of lockdown defense on the perimeter and continue to bomb it from deep as he averages 45 percent from downtown.
Should You Be On the OVER?
The total opened at 222 and although I’ve harped on how well these teams have played defensively, the scoring is hard to overlook. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in points per game and the OVER hit in three of their four games last season with an average combined score of 229.7 points per game.
My Pick is…
To take the Bucks to cover the spread. I think the Raptors are vulnerable defensively with Leonard out of the lineup and could be run out of the building. The Bucks defense is legit and should be able to keep Kyle Lowry from exploding offensively.
