After overcoming double-digit deficits in their last two games as double-digit favorites, the Golden State Warriors will take the court tonight against a worthy Western Conference opponent in the Utah Jazz. The Warriors have won 15 of their last 16 games (all as a favorite) but have only covered the spread in eight of them. The Jazz, on the other hand, have won four of their last six games on the road and have covered the spread in the last five games in this matchup while winning four of them outright.
The Warriors opened as 10-point favorites (since moved to -9) with a total of 229.
- The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The Jazz are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games.
- The OVER has hit in 5 of the Jazz’s last 6 games.
Why Can’t the Warriors Cover the Spread Lately?
Well, it’s a combination of two things. One is that sportsbooks put their lines way too high and have had them as double-digit favorites in their last four games overall (1-3 ATS). The other is just the fact that they’re always a favorite at Oracle Arena. Since the start of December, the Warriors have been a home fave 15 times and their spread record is 4-10-1. They’re also 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games as faves of 8 points or more.
However, to their credit, the Dubs are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games overall and are holding teams to 43.6 percent shooting from the field, which is second in the NBA in that span, while limiting teams to 109.6 points per game (ranked 12th). The reason why the point total is higher is because during that same stretch, they are allowing the opposition to shoot 35.6 percent from three, which is 16th, meaning that if a team wants to beat the Dubs, they have to beat them at their own game and as evidenced by Golden State’s record, that is easier said than done.
The volatility of taking or fading the Warriors at home might be one of the riskiest bets in sports because they have all the talent to blow out any team on a given night by 20 points. But the opposition almost treats their game like the Super Bowl when playing Golden State and the Dubs can be prone to a letdown. I may end up fading them but wouldn’t be surprised if it blows up in my face.
Jazz Have Been Rising Up The Ranks
Winners of 12 of their last 15 games and four of the last five games in this matchup, the Jazz can’t be viewed as a pushover. Utah is holding teams to 105.6 points per game over its last 15 games while ranking in the top 10 in both opponent field-goal and three-point percentage. The three-point attempts are what stands out for the Jazz as they’ve limited opponents to 28.7 three-point attempts, which ranks third in the league in that span.
The more research I do on the Jazz, the more I like their chances to keep this game close. Utah has started to find its shooting stroke as the Jazz have taken the third-most three-point attempts over the last 15 games and are dominating the boards by hauling in 44.7 rebounds per game. Another reason I like them tonight is they seem to match up well and play the Warriors tough. They have covered the spread in the last five games in this matchup and in four of their last five games at Oracle Arena.
I’m going to take the plunge and take the Jazz to cover but I can’t blame anyone for wanting to stay away from this tilt. If spreads aren’t your thing, the OVER could be a decent play considering the OVER has hit in five of the Jazz’s last six games with an average combined score of 230 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the Jazz to cover the spread. I don’t feel great about it but I refuse to take the Warriors as a large home favorite for the time being because they have let me down too many times in that spot. The Jazz seem to have turned the corner lately and I think they can keep this game within 10 points.
