The Utah Jazz arrive in Milwaukee tonight having won seven of the last eight meetings with the Bucks. However, this time is different. The teams haven’t played since December of 2017 and this year’s version of the Milwaukee Bucks is 18-4 on home court and is the highest-scoring team in the NBA. Milwaukee is a 5.5-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 222.5.
- Milwaukee is 14-7-1 ATS on home court.
- Utah is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Milwaukee.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Milwaukee’s last 16 games.
New Year, Same Milwaukee
The Bucks have averaged 127 points per game in their first three contests in 2019 to maintain their NBA-high 117.7 points per game this season. The Bucks are coming off just their fourth home loss of the season to the East-leading Toronto Raptors on Saturday.
On home court, the Bucks are even better than their season average, scoring 120.8 points per game en route to the NBA’s best home record. Milwaukee isn’t just a one-trick pony – the Bucks are No. 10 in scoring defense at 108.2 points per game.
The Bucks have the best scoring margin in the NBA at +9.5 compared to +2.4 for the Jazz.
Bucks Dominant in the Paint
Plenty is made about the Bucks’ offense, and rightfully so, however maybe the biggest advantage they have is their ability to defend in the paint. Milwaukee is the only team in the Association allowing fewer than 40 points per game from the paint and is four points better than its season average since the ball dropped in Times Square.
Interestingly, the Jazz have the No. 9 paint defense and are scoring about 45 percent of their total points from the paint. I expect a physical battle between these inside teams tonight.
My Pick for Tonight’s Game
I’m going to back the Bucks in tonight’s game as a 5.5-point favorite. Milwaukee has been dominant on home court this season and has dominated under the basket – an area where Utah has been scoring a lot of its points.
If the Jazz are forced to take outside shots, then the advantage goes to Milwaukee as Utah is the No. 24 three-point shooting team in the league. If Utah is unable to play its offensive game, the No. 21 scoring offense will be in trouble and likely kept well below its 108 points per game.
In a game that’s also looking to be physical under the boards, Utah is ranked No. 26 in free-throw percentage. I think there are too many opportunities for the Jazz to miss out on points vs an offensively dominant club.
