The Toronto Raptors are 10.5-point favorites vs the lowly Washington Wizards tonight, but that doesn’t mean it’s as cut-and-dried as betting on Nick Nurse’s Eastern Conference-leading squad. The Raps are just 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games as a double-digit favorite and they’ve only been this big a favorite against the Wizards twice in franchise history – the most recent was in 2008.
- The Raptors are shooting 48.7 percent from the floor (third in the NBA).
- Washington has the No. 28 scoring defense in the NBA (116.94 points per game).
- The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto’s last 11 games at home (avg. combined score: 227.0).
Wizards vs Raptors Game Center
Toronto is Enjoying Offensive Success
Kawhi Leonard (24.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG) and Danny Green (44% from beyond the arc) have made it very easy for Raptors fans to move on from DeMar DeRozan. Sitting in first place in the conference after 19 games, Toronto has the No. 3-ranked two-point shooting percentage in the NBA and a +8.4 average point differential, which is second only to Milwaukee.
Despite this offensive prowess, Toronto is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of 10-plus points. Dating back to March, the Raps are just 3-10-2 ATS as an 8- to 12-point favorite. So, this range hasn’t been kind to Toronto bettors. One reason for this could be that Toronto’s average fourth-quarter scoring margin is -1.3 (24th in the NBA).
How About Washington in This Spot?
The Wizards have been a very poor bet this season, going 6-11 ATS in their first 17 contests. Tonight will be their biggest underdog deficit since their fourth game of the season at Golden State, when they lost 144-122 as a 10-point dog.
Traditionally, this is not a spot that the Wizards find themselves in as tonight marks just the eighth time since February 1, 2016, that Washington has been a double-digit dog. They’re 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS in those previous seven games.
Washington has the No. 12 scoring offense in the NBA and is averaging 111.8 points per game. The offense has been more productive lately, though, averaging 115 points in the last six games.
My Pick for This Game
For me, there are too many variables and both teams (and the entire NBA, really) have been volatile when it comes to big spreads early this season. Double-digit underdogs are 17-19-1 ATS this season, so I’m going to take a look at the first-half spread, rather than the full game.
The Raptors are second in the NBA with 61.6 first-half points per game and they lead the league with a +8.2 first-half point differential on home court. Conversely, the Wizards are 28th in the Association with a -7.2 first-half differential on the road. I’m booking the Raptors -6 on the first-half spread.
