How do you like your lame duck? If the latest Senate and House of Representative betting odds are any indication of Washington, D.C.’s future political balance, the Democrats would win the Senate and the Republicans would take back the House to create the so-branded “lame duck” session of Congress for the last two years of President Joe Biden’s first term.
Without the majority in both chambers of Congress and acknowledging the blood sport American politics has become over the past eight years, governing gridlock is expected in terms of new policies, bills and laws being enacted.
2022 U.S. House Of Representatives Betting Odds
If you’re a glass-half-full backer of a Democratic bet slip, we do have some good news for you. Their odds have improved considerably since late June, thanks in part to Biden’s improved polling, signed spending bill and moderate voter consternation regarding the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe vs Wade.
Odds that the Democrats maintain a House majority were +500, which carried an implied probability of winning of less than 17 percent, but they have since improved to +275 as of late September for a 26.7 percent implied probability.
On the other side of the aisle, the Republicans’ odds of taking back the majority sank from -900 to -400 at online sportsbook Sportsbook. Their implied probability dipped from a 90 percent lock to 80 percent in less than three months. To be fair, those odds are still quite strong and the right side of the aisle maintains a vice-tight grip on winning this November, but it’s not as ironclad as they’d probably hope.
| Party | Odds |
|---|---|
| Republicans | -400 |
| Democrats | +275 |
Odds as of Sept. 28 at Sportsbook
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Gerrymandering Concerns
If you’re a hard-core political bettor, the term gerrymandering is not new to you. It is defined as a practice to “manipulate the (congressional map) boundaries so as to favor one party or class” and in this volatile political climate has become more of a problem as one party tries to upend the other.
According to this New York Times piece, judges in four states have determined that Republican legislators illegally drew maps along racial and partisan lines. Those states are Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Ohio. Unlike in the past, the Supreme Court decided to determine their legality and impact on future elections at a later date. In other words, they kicked the can down the road and rejected maps will be used this November. The Cook Political Report believes Republicans will easily win five to seven seats that they wouldn’t have without the gerrymandered maps.
Just a heads-up.
Midterm Blues: Party’s Over For Democratic Party (Probably)
Since 1948, only twice has the presidential party GAINED more House of Representative seats in midterm elections. This occurred in 1998 when Bill Clinton was in office and in 2002, a year after 9/11 occurred, with George Bush in office. Only then did the Dems and Reps gain five and six seats, respectively.
Check out some of the top swings in seats that have occurred in past midterm elections:
| Presidential Party (Year) | House Seats Lost |
|---|---|
| Dems (2010, Obama) | 63 |
| Dems (1946, Truman, WWII) | 53 |
| Dems (1994, Clinton) | 52 |
| Reps (1974, Nixon) | 43 |
| Reps (2018, Trump) | 40 |
This is to just say, yes, Democrats have an uphill climb this November.
