The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election can be very profitable and enjoyable. By trying to predict political outcomes and the events surrounding the next United States election, you can enjoy watching the primaries, conventions, and debates – even when the contenders are name-calling and dodging questions.
At Odds Shark, we want to show you how to read odds for politics and the type of bets you can make.
Understanding Political Betting Odds
When you check out any sportsbooks you’ll see political betting odds laid out like so:
| Party | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -115 |
| Kamala Harris | +105 |
Favorites are always represented by the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+). At +105, oddsmakers are giving the Democratic Nominee Kamala Harris a 49% shot of winning the election. If you were to bet $100 and she won, you’d get $205 – your original money comes back along with your $105 profit.
On the other hand, oddsmakers are giving the Republican Nominee Donald Trump a 54% shot. A $100 bet on the former President would give you $186.96 – your $100 is returned with your winnings of $86.96.
Underdog wagers, in this case on Kamala Harris, are considered riskier and generate a bigger payout. Faves come with less risk, hence the smaller reward. Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the amount bet and odds offered.
Political Prop Betting
When betting on sports, you have moneylines, spreads, and other options relating to scoring and different positions. In politics, you only have one type of bet: Props. These are bets that don’t necessarily correlate with the outcome of the election but could still influence voters, such as:
- Who will be X’s running mate?
- How long will the debate be between X and Y?
- How many times will candidate X say “um” during the debate?
- Who will be the Republican Nominee?
- How often will candidate X discuss their health-care plan?
- Which party will win the popular vote?
- How many Supreme Court seats will be filled during the next presidency?
How to Handicap Politics
Political prop betting research is different because there are no total scores, strikeouts, or touchdowns to analyze. Instead of betting on home runs or three-pointers, you’re betting on policies.
Scandals: Rumors, Gossip and Indignities
This one is tricky because Donald Trump was plagued with scandal and still managed to get elected to the highest office in the United States. Scandals matter for any other nominee. The more shocking the scandal, the less chance the candidate should have of being elected.
Leadership: Direction, Governance and Management Style
How a candidate has led in the past is something to look into when handicapping your bets. Are they respected in their current position as a senator/mayor/representative/governor? Do they command the room when they speak? If a candidate looks like they couldn’t lead a high school marching band, let alone an entire country, you can kiss their presidential probabilities goodbye.
Policies: Priorities, Politics, And "Why They're Running"
A presidential election should be all about the issues. What does the candidate want to enact once they're in power? Why are they running exactly? If their policies and priorities are popular that should increase their odds. A candidate who wants to lower healthcare costs stands a better chance of winning than one who wants to cut corporate tax rates.
Promises: Offers, Eccentricities and Lies
Look out for candidates who make promises on the campaign trail that they can't keep. We’re not talking about the general stuff like lower taxes or Medicare for All – we’re talking about promises that make little sense like free cutlery for cats or $1,000 a month to every family in America.
Politics markets could see you winning big if you pay attention to these factors.
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U.S. Political Betting FAQ
Where can I bet on U.S. politics?
In order to bet on U.S. politics results, like the 2020 U.S. presidential election, you need to set up a betting account with an online sportsbook or at a casino with legalized betting, like in Las Vegas, that offers these betting markets. Here are some of the most popular websites that offer U.S. Politics betting odds.
How do I bet on the U.S. Presidential Election?
Set up a betting account with an online sportsbook or place a bet somewhere with legalized betting. These places will offer odds on U.S. presidential election results along with a variety of betting props like popular vote or Electoral College outcomes.
How are U.S. presidential betting odds made?
Oddsmakers that work with sportsbooks use a math algorithm to determine betting odds for U.S. presidential election outcomes. The sportsbooks use polling data, population numbers, early voter turnout and the amount of money currently bet on the political market to establish updated betting odds.
