Champions League Golden Boot: Haaland Has Easier Path

Last year's Champions League Golden Boot winner was Manchester City's Erling Haaland. That season he announced himself as the King of European goal scorers with 36 goals in the Premier League and 12 in the Champions League.

Now he's on a quest to be the first player since Cristiano Ronaldo in 2017-18 to win back-to-back Champions League scoring titles. Haaland is the early favorite at +110. Bayern's Harry Kane is second on the oddsboard at +400.

2023 Odds To Win Champions League Golden Boot

Odds as of September 18

Why Is Erling Haaland the Favorite to Win Champions League Top Scorer?

Haaland won it last season with 12 goals through 11 games (1.09 goals per game) in the competition. A goal rate that was just a bit better than his goal rate in the Premier League. In 22-23, Haaland scored 36 goals across 35 games (1.03 goals/game) in the Prem. 

While it's still early in the year, the big Norwegian hasn't stopped scoring with seven goals in his first five Premier League games (1.4 goals per game). 

At this rate of scoring, not only is he the clear favorite to win the Champions League scoring title again, but he might even approach Ronaldo's record of 17 goals in a single tournament. 

Champions League Top Scorer Value Bets

Vinicius Junior - Real Madrid (+3500)

Last year the young Brazilian put up seven goals in the competition. Even if Real had made it past ManCity in the Semi's it's unlikely that Vini would have scored enough to catch and overtake Haaland. 

But with a new year comes a fresh start. 

At the league level, we know that Vinicius is creating nearly 0.5 expected goals per match. A rate that's close to the amount he put up in 2021-22 when he scored 17 for Real in La Liga. We could be looking at Prime Vini again and if you can get him at +3500 you're making a ton of profit.

Lautaro Martinez - Inter Milan (+6500)

Inter Milan's Argentinian forward doesn't make the top ten on the oddsboard, but I've got him as a good value play. At +6500 he could net you some insane profits.

I know last year he only scored three goals in 13 Champions League games. But he's on another level right now for Inter.

Martinez already has five goals on the year at the domestic level. In just four games. That puts him on pace to score more than double the 21 he scored in 22-23. Inter are finding him in all types of space in the league and in turn, he's finding the net.

I already believe Inter will go deep - again - in this tournament. We're seeing Lautaro open up an incredible rate of scoring domestically and also believe he'll do so internationally. 

Last 10 Champions League Golden Boot Winners

*Won competition that year

From 2012-13 through 2017-18, Cristiano Ronaldo dominated this competition. He won the top scorer award six straight times while scoring a ridiculous 82 goals. We won’t see that version of Ronaldo again, so count yourself lucky if you were able to see it.