The Champions League will be won by either Real Madrid or Borussia Dortmund. The clash is set for June 1 at London's Wembley Stadium with kick-off at 3 PM ET.
I've had a Drake-level curse when it comes to picking the eventual winner in this competition. So instead of picking a winner, I'm going to lay out how each side can win the Final on June 1.
2023-24 Champions League Title Odds
| Team | Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | -330 | +800 |
| Dortmund | +250 | +3300 |
Odds as of May 30
Odds makers have backed Real Madrid to win their 15th Champions League title. It's hard to argue too much, again, they've won this competition 14 times already. Meanwhile, Dortmund has 0 Champions League trophies. They did reach the Final in 2013 (also at Wembley oddly enough).
Madrid has club-level name recognition as well as a cast of household names on the pitch. I bet a majority of those tunning into the Final couldn't name Dortmund's club captain*. Not to mention Dortmund was never seen as likely to win with +3300 opening odds.
*It's Emre Can.
Champions League Final Game Lines
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | -160 | O2.5 (-140) | -0.5 (-175) |
| Dortmund | +450 | U2.5 (+115) | +0.5 (+130) |
| Draw | +320 |
If you think Madrid is definitely going to win this competition I'd look at placing a bet on the moneyline rather than on the futures market. The odds are -160 instead of -350. That's a doubling up of profits by playing the ML.
Sure, Madrid has to win in regular time but eight of the last nine finals were resolved in regulation.
Champions League Final: Why Real Madrid Wins
Offense. Madrid has scored an average of 1.94 goals per 90 in the competition so far. That's the third-best rate in the league after the two Machester sides. Scoring nearly two goals per match has been enough in recent finals. The last five champions just needed to score a single goal to win the championship.
Unlike other teams (*cough*Bayern*cough*) who've got that one talismanic player up top, Madrid has four players who can chip in with goals. Four of Real's players have five goals in this competition. No other side can match that type of spread-out production.
Dortmund's top scorer is Niclas Fullkrug with three goals.
Real wins by simply overwhelming a well-organized Dortmund team that allows the sixth-most passes into the final third in the tournament (per 90) at 39.7.
Champions League Final: Why Dortmund Wins
It's all about defense with BVB. Dortmund has the best defensive record in the competition with 0.64 goals against per 90. Looking back at the last five competitions the teams with the best (and second-best) defense have won three times.
| Year | Team | GA/90 (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Manchester City | 0.38 (1) |
| 2021 | Real Madrid | 1.02 (8) |
| 2020 | Chelsea | 0.31 (1) |
| 2019 | Bayern Munich | 0.64 (2) |
| 2018 | Liverpool | 0.85 (6) |
Dortmund proved themselves defensively by keeping PSG and the current "best player in the world" Kylian Mbappé goalless over a two-leg semi-final.
And look, we can't disrespect Dortmund's path to the Final. Based on each of their opponent's form (points) in their respective leagues and that league's UEFA coefficient, Dortmund had a tougher path than Real. Defense matters a lot in this (and any other) tournament.
Last 10 Champions League Winners
| Year | Club | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Manchester City | +250 |
| 2022 | Real Madrid | +1400 |
| 2021 | Chelsea | +2000 |
| 2020 | Bayern Munich | +1200 |
| 2019 | Liverpool | +1200 |
| 2018 | Real Madrid | +400 |
| 2017 | Real Madrid | +520 |
| 2016 | Real Madrid | +530 |
| 2015 | Barcelona | +550 |
| 2014 | Real Madrid | +500 |
After seeing four of the last five winners have opening odds above +1000, we got back to the favorites winning the competition last season. On September 6, 2022, City had +250 odds and went all the way to win the crown.
