I went 2-1 with my three MLS expert picks on Matchday 27. My strategy to lean on neutral bets (like totals) paid off. It was my first positive result in a while. On the season my record is still a poor 12-22 (35%) for -7.42 units.
Let's keep up with more neutral bets for Matchday 28 and look for more positive results.
MLS Expert Picks: Matchday 28
For my MLS Matchday 28 expert picks, I've got a moneyline pick in Atlanta United vs Columbus Crew, a ton of goals in Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC, and not so many goals in LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers.
Atlanta United vs Columbus Crew
Atlanta United vs Columbus Crew Kick-Off: Saturday, July 20, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United | +200 | O3.5 (+125) | +0.5 (-150) |
| Columbus Crew | +110 | U3.5 (-155) | -0.5 (+105) |
| Draw | +265 |
Odds as of July 19
Pick: Columbus Crew ML (+110)
With Thiago Almada and Giorgos Giakoumakis sold, Atlanta is massively vulnerable. Without those two stars, the 5-stripes have gone winless in their last four games and were outscored 9-5.
In steps a powerful Columbus side that's gone 9-1-1 lately with an incredible +24 goal differential. We've seen the Crew average 60% possession on the season while Atlanta haven't seen more than 40% of the ball in their last four games. ATL should play right into Columbus's hands.
Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC Kick-Off: Saturday, July 20, 7:30 PM
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | -130 | O2.5 (-150) | -0.5 (-135) |
| Nashville SC | +300 | U2.5 (+120) | +0.5 (-105) |
| Draw | +280 |
Odds as of July 19
Pick: OVER 2.5 goals (-150)
The Union have their shooting boots on after their last win where they scored five goals on 2.3 opportunities. Welcoming a free-falling Nashville to Subaru Park bodes well for our OVER bet. The Music have allowed an average of 2.75 goals in their last four games.
We've seen OVER 2.5 goals in five of Nashville's last seven games (71%) and seven of Philadelphia's last nine (78%). Goals are scored when either of these two sides plays.
LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers Kick-Off: Saturday, July 20, 10:45 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy | -125 | O3.5 (-120) | -0.5 (-130) |
| Portland Timbers | +255 | U3.5 (-105) | +0.5 (-105) |
| Draw | +320 |
Odds as of July 19
Pick: UNDER 3.5 goals (-105)
We see the line at 3.5 goals because it's hit in three of the Timbers' last four games and because the Galaxy have the third-best offense in the league with 47 goals. If the OVER hits it's because LA gets to score at will but they'll be without their main offensive weapon; Dejan Joveljic.
His 13.9 non-penalty xG + expected assisted goals lead the team. As does his 12 actual goals. He's missed the last few games with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss this contest.
Hitting OVER 3.5 goals is a tall task. The Galaxy have only seen O3.5 goals 11 times in 25 games (44%) and only once in their last seven (14%). I say this goes UNDER.
