Gamrot vs Turner Odds & Pick: Can The Tarantula Stay Hot?

An exciting lightweight clash will grace the UFC 285 main card as Mateusz Gamrot (21-2, 4-2 UFC) takes on Jalin Turner (13-5, 6-2 UFC). Turner was originally scheduled to fight Dan Hooker, but the Aussie pulled out with a broken hand and was replaced by Gamrot on short notice. 

UFC 285: Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner Betting Odds

Odds as of March 3

Our odds calculator suggests Gamrot’s -220 status translates to an implied win probability of 68.75 percent, and a $10 bet on him pays out just $14.55. Turner’s +185 odds equate to a 35.09 percent chance of victory, with a $10 bet paying out $28.50. 

For more information on how these numbers work, including the Gamrot vs Turner odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, visit our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon.

UFC 285: Gamrot vs Turner Preview: Who Will Win?

Hooker vs Turner would’ve been better, but this is still a fun lightweight fight. Let’s see how the styles match up.

What Gamrot Does Well

In our Rakhmonov vs Neal preview, I explained how Rakhmonov wasn’t a takedown spammer — well, Gamrot is a takedown spammer. The Pole is one of the most esteemed wrestlers at 155 pounds, averaging 4.66 takedowns per 15 minutes and securing three stoppage wins in six fights. On paper, Gamrot should be able to take Turner down and hammer away at him for 15 minutes. 

That said, I don’t think this fight is as easy a win for Gamrot as it’s been made out to be. Gamrot’s -210 odds assume an implied win probability of 67.74 percent. That’s too steep in my books. “Gamer” has been knocked down in three of six UFC fights — with Turner’s freaky long arms, I’d watch for a few heavy shots to Gamrot’s chin on Saturday.

What Turner Does Well

I take issue with these odds because, in a vacuum, Turner has the better skill set. “The Tarantula” is a giant lightweight at six-foot-three and his 77-inch reach outdoes Gamrot by a whopping seven inches. Gamrot’s resume is more impressive (he had one hell of a battle vs Beneil Dariush at UFC 280), but Turner’s physical skill set creates two distinct advantages.

Firstly, Turner should be able to crush Gamrot on the feet — he’s a stronger and much more creative striker. Secondly, Turner’s telephone-pole arms give him wicked leverage for submissions, part of why he has three tap-out wins in the UFC. It’s likely Turner gets put on his back, but as Gamrot adjusts his head in top position, Turner should have a chance to attack the neck and squeeze like hell. 

Gamrot vs Turner Pick

Gamrot could spam his takedowns and win a slow three-round decision, but I don’t think Turner will let that happen. The 27-year-old American is on a five-fight win streak and looks better than he ever has in his MMA career.

At plus money, I’ll take Turner to win straight up (+185) and the fight to finish UNDER 2.5 rounds (-138). If you really want some Hail Mary value, you can’t do any better than Turner to win in Round 1 (+700) or Round 2 (+1000).

Pick: Turner to win (+185); uNDER 2.5 rounds (-138)

Check out our other pages for full previews and picks on Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane, Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso, Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov and Bo Nickal vs Jamie Pickett. 

UFC 285: Full Card & Betting Odds

Odds as of March 3