Shevchenko vs Grasso Odds & Pick: Bullet Geared For Ground-And-Pound Beating

There will be two belts on the line at UFC 285, as Valentina Shevchenko (23-3, 12-2 UFC) defends her women’s flyweight championship strap against sixth-ranked challenger Alexa Grasso (15-3, 7-3 UFC). 

The 125-pound title bout takes place March 4 on the main card, which will begin at 9:30 p.m. ET. Shevchenko is a massive favorite at -700. 

UFC 285: Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso Betting Odds

Odds as of March 3

Our odds calculator tells us Shevchenko’s -700 odds translate to an implied win probability of 87.50 percent, and a $10 bet on the champ pays out just $11.43. Grasso’s +450 odds equate to an 18.18 percent chance of victory with a $10 bet paying out $55. 

For more information on how these numbers work, including the Shevchenko vs Grasso odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, visit our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon.

UFC 285: Shevchenko vs Grasso Preview: Who Will Win?

With such heavy chalk on Shevchenko, let’s dig for ways to make money. 

What Grasso Does Well

Like many Mexican fighters, Grasso holds a tight guard, insulating her from a lot of attacks on the feet. She’s very crisp with her footwork and can be quite patient with her strikes as she waits for the right moment. In a pure boxing lens, this fight vs Shevchenko is close.

Here’s the problem – there’s no way “Bullet” takes her chances on the feet. Grasso’s 64 percent takedown defense is exploitable, and Shevchenko will try to clinch and trip her opponent as soon as she gets the chance. With Valentina on top, Grasso is screwed. Wrestler types have given Grasso fits in years past (she has losses to Tatiana Suarez and Carla Esparza), and if this fight hits the mat and stays there, Shevchenko has an easy win.

What Shevchenko Does Well

The 34-year-old is the second-greatest female UFC fighter of all time (with losses only to Amanda Nunes), and she’s a beast with her ground-and-pound offense. This matchup vs Grasso is a classic example of Shevchenko possessing great strength in areas where Grasso is very weak. It might be only a matter of time before the Kyrgyzstanian puts Grasso in that ill-fated crucifix position and clubs her for a stoppage victory.

Grasso is no slouch – and she has one submission victory under her belt – but she’ll be outmatched Saturday, even as Shevchenko bounces back from an underwhelming performance vs Taila Santos. 

Shevchenko vs Grasso Pick

The -700 line on Shevchenko is well placed. Maybe Grasso defends a few takedowns, but I don’t envision a scenario where Shevchenko doesn’t have a massive advantage in control time. From there, we need to weigh where to place our bets. 

The odds are at -125 for the fight to finish UNDER 3.5 rounds and -175 to finish inside the distance. It’s clear the books expect Shevchenko to crush Grasso, and I won’t disagree.

Because of Grasso’s inexperience on the ground (relative to Shevchenko’s fortitude in that discipline), my official prediction is for Valentina to win inside the distance (-125) and get the job done UNDER 4.5 rounds (-163). 

Pick: Shevchenko to win inside the distance (-125); UNDER 4.5 rounds (-163)

Check out our other pages for full previews and picks on Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane, Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov, Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner and Bo Nickal vs Jamie Pickett. 

UFC 285: Full Card & Betting Odds

Odds as of March 3