Blachowicz vs Ankalaev Odds & Pick: Russian Favored In UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

In a dramatic shakeup of the UFC 282 lineup, light heavyweights Jan Blachowicz (29-9, 12-6 UFC) and Magomed Ankalaev (18-1, 9-1 UFC) will now headline the December 10 card in Las Vegas. 

With the Jiri Prochazka vs Glover Teixeira fight canceled due to Prochazka’s injury, Blachowicz (ranked second) and Ankalaev (ranked third) will fight for the interim UFC light heavyweight championship in a five-round bout. 

Sportsbook has the Blachowicz vs Ankalaev odds, where the Russian is a decisive -325 favorite. 

Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev Betting Odds

Odds as of December 9 at Sportsbook

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Our odds calculator suggests Ankalaev’s -325 status equates to an implied win probability of 76.47 percent, meaning a $10 bet on him pays out $13.08. Blachowicz’s +255 underdog status gives him an implied win probability of 28.17 percent and a $10 bet on him pays out $35.50.

For more information on interpreting these numbers, including the Blachowicz vs Ankalaev odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, feel free to visit our many UFC betting sites, as well as our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon. 

For further betting insight, hop over to our breakdown of the new UFC 282 co-main event between Paddy Pimblett and Jared Gordon. 

Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev Betting Odds Analysis

Blachowicz has been quite profitable as an underdog in his UFC career. The 39-year-old former champion has cashed out for plus money against the following fighters:

The Poland native famously lost his belt as a -265 favorite vs Glover Teixeira at UFC 267 but has otherwise been a solid bet to win against a notable resume of opponents. In the UFC, Blachowicz is shockingly 10-2 as the underdog and just 6-4 as the favorite. 

Ankalaev’s UFC numbers look dramatically different than those of Blachowicz. The 30-year-old has opened as the betting favorite in all 10 of his UFC fights and has never faced tighter odds than -205. He’s very familiar with fighting as massive chalk. 

Blachowicz vs Ankalaev Preview: Speed vs Power

Ankalaev and Blachowicz profile as similar fighters – both guys are sturdy striker-wrestler types – with one distinct deviation: Jan is more of a one-shot power puncher, while Magomed is slick and explosive. A quick scan through each guy’s highlight reel reveals some spectacular knockout finishes, but it’s a little harder to project how Ankalaev and Blachowicz profile against each other. 

On the feet, the numbers tell us Ankalaev is a superior defender, absorbing just 2.14 significant strikes per minute (compared to Jan’s 2.77) and protecting himself from 60 percent of his opponent’s significant strikes (compared to Jan’s 54 percent). From a grappling standpoint, Blachowicz is far better than Ankalaev at securing takedowns, though the Russian has an impeccable 86 percent takedown denial rate. 

Anecdotally, Ankalaev is more patient and precise than Blachowicz. He is light for the weight class and will often toss jabs followed by vicious high kicks. A lot of his game is about attacking but keeping himself protected on the back end. Blachowicz’s best chance is to work tight, clinch and fire heavily when the two fighters break. A slugfest greatly favors Jan’s legendary “Polish Power” and Ankalaev can get overwhelmed by rapid volume – that’s how Thiago Santos knocked the Russian down for the first time at UFC Vegas 50. 

Finish or Decision? 

Magomed is typically a slow starter who warms up to fights by picking at his opponent and finding vulnerabilities. His patience and technical soundness afford him a significant advantage if he keeps his distance, hence why Ankalaev has earned four of his nine UFC wins via decision. 

Ankalaev secured a stoppage win over Anthony Smith at UFC 277, though that only happened because of Smith’s knee injury. Before that bout, Ankalaev was on a roll of three straight decision wins. He’s yet to truly knock out a legitimate opponent in the UFC, as his early knockouts came against journeymen. 

Blachowicz will be Ankalaev’s toughest test. Despite tangling with some scary opponents, the Pole has been finished just twice in his UFC career, although seven of his last 10 fights have ended UNDER 2.5 rounds. Remarkably, this will be Jan’s seventh consecutive fight as the event headliner. In five-round events, Blachowicz is 5-2, and five of those fights have gone UNDER 2.5 rounds. 

Blachowicz vs Ankalaev Betting Pick

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Given the track record, it’s hard to read the stats and advise folks to bet against Blachowicz and his +255 underdog value. That said, Ankalaev’s style is just too chiseled in this main event. The Russian possesses the finesse and the cardio to take this bout into the later rounds or win on points if needed.

Pick: Ankalaev (-325); OVER 3.5 Rounds (EVEN)