Oliveira vs Makhachev Odds & Pick: An Epic Rematch At UFC 294

Who wants a rematch?

Charles Oliveira dominated Beneil Dariush at UFC 289, prompting the hungriest fight fans to bang the table for "Do Bronx" getting another UFC lightweight title shot.

We already saw the Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev fight at UFC 280 play out — Islam won by second-round submission — but perhaps Charles has evolved enough to pull off an upset victory this time around.

Charles and Islam will fight at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi on October 21. The early Oliveira vs Makhachev odds have the Russian as a -334 favorite.

Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev Odds

Odds as of August 9

Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Makhachev at -334 pays out $129.94. The same $100 on Oliveira at +250 nets $350.

Oliveira vs Makhachev Preview

The odds tell one story, but does the in-Octagon action play out differently than their first bout at UFC 280?

How Oliveira Wins

Charles put on a masterclass in his upset win over Beneil Dariush at UFC 289. The Brazilian established the center of the cage and immediately threatened Dariush with thunderous high kicks to set the tone. Within minutes, “Do Bronx” had Benny cornered and covering up for dear life. Oliveira needs to re-establish that tornado-like momentum in any potential rematch vs Islam.

The 34-year-old is objectively a more dynamic striker than Makhachev, though the champion caught him with some good left straights at UFC 280. Charles can eat those and keep moving. Oliveira ran into trouble when the champ started marching him backward. Dagestani fighters will drain your gas tank by pressing you against the cage and seeking those judo takedowns. Oliveira ran out of steam, dropped his hands, then Makhachev socked him with a hook and jumped for the submission.

Charles wins the rematch by continuously moving his feet, claiming the center of the Octagon and doing his best to put Makhachev on his heels.

How Makhachev Wins

Rinse and repeat. Makhachev is fresh off a title defense at UFC 284, where he battled all kinds of adversity against Alexander Volkanovski. Islam won a tight five-round decision in that bout, but in a rematch against Charles, he can breathe a sigh of relief.

The wrestling offers an impenetrable security blanket in all Makhachev’s fights — Islam knows he’ll dominate on the ground. At UFC 280, there were concerns about how Makhachev might weather Charles’ striking. Islam erased those doubts by keeping things simple. As a southpaw, he used one-two combos, keeping things short and snappy when Oliveira blitzed in.

Oliveira wins by overwhelming or confusing his opponents. Islam is steady. And unless he starts panicking, which I don’t envision, he’ll be well-equipped for a rematch. 

Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev Pick

After the Dariush win, I'm a Charles believer. But, in this instance, I don't foresee a situation where he gets past Islam. Makhachev is like bedrock — you can't outslug him — and with Oliveira's propensity for early stoppages, I'll bet Do Bronx gets torpedoed again early.

Pick: Makhachev inside the distance (TBD); UNDER 3.5 rounds (TBD)