Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 Odds & Pick: Who Wins At UFC 294?

Places, everyone. This is not a drill. Islam Makhachev is fighting Alexander Volkanovski for the lightweight title once again.

Makhachev was set to defend his 155-pound strap at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi, but when contender Charles Oliveira dropped out due to injury, Volkanovski, the featherweight champ, took his place on two weeks' notice. Legend.

And now we've got a rematch of one of MMA's finest fights (UFC 284) taking place on October 21. "The Great" gets more respect in the odds this time around, as Makhachev is a -250 favorite, while Volkanovski comes in at +200.

Other UFC 294 Betting Previews + Picks:

Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski 2 Betting Odds

Odds as of Oct. 20

Our odds calculator suggests Makhachev’s -250 status equates to an implied win probability of 71.43%, meaning a $100 bet on him pays out $140. Volkanovski’s +200 underdog status gives him an implied win probability of 33.33%, and a $100 bet on him pays out $300. 

Be sure to check out all our other UFC odds, including a comprehensive betting breakdown of the UFC 294 co-main event between Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev, plus a preview of Johnny Walker vs Magomed Ankalaev.

How To Watch UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2

Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski Betting Preview: Who Wins The Rematch?

In their first fight in February, Islam was a -400 favorite, while Volk came in at +300. Very quickly, the Australian proved he was overlooked, battling to make things very close. In the end, the live odds could've been at pick'em heading into the judges' decisions.

Things are tighter this time around. Here's what I'm looking for.

How To Bet Makhachev

Volkanovski will no longer have the element of surprise. At UFC 284, Islam held strong but got caught early by some of Volk's classic stance-switch entries. Makhachev felt the force of the stout Aussie's blasts and lost his way for a moment. There is no doubt the defensive gameplan will be different for the rematch.

Beyond that, though, Makhachev's plan of attack shouldn't waver. He can set up offense from the southpaw stance, crack Volkanovski with knees up the middle, and work into dominant wrestling positions. Cardio is one of my bigger concerns with Islam, as he faded in the fifth round back in Perth. Volkanovski, being the fire hydrant he is, took advantage.

If you're betting Islam, take a flier on him to win early (I'd favor KO/TKO over submission). Volkanovski has never been finished, so there's no guarantee this bout will end early, but it's still worth a wager. 

How to Bet Volkanovski

"You're not that strong. You're not that strong." That's what Volkanovski told Makhachev at the conclusion of Round 1 when the Dagestani had the featherweight champ wrapped up against the cage. Volkanovski doesn't fold or panic in dangerous positions — we learned that after he survived a guillotine choke from Brian Ortega at UFC 266 — and I think that genuinely frightened Islam.

This fight will be another war, and Volkanovski's toughness and gas tank will be his biggest assets. He's got lead hands, a strong chin, and a willingness to work when Makhachev inevitably pins him. If Volk can bounce back up like he did in the first fight, I have little doubt in his capabilities to score an upset.

Again, I envision this fight going the distance. But if you're keen on Volkanovski, he's obviously best as a straight-up underdog play, but you can throw some cash on him to win by KO/TKO as a dart throw. 

Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2 Betting Pick

I already said you can toss a prayer on either guy to win inside the distance. But in the end, I'm going a different route. We don't have precise prop odds since this bout was just recently announced, but I'll be leaning into a few OVER rounds totals on October 21. I like OVER 3.5 rounds (-190)as the perfect, safe number.

For a true pick, Volkanovski straight up is the move. I saw him gain tons of ground at UFC 284, and if he had two more minutes to cook, he might've snuffed Islam out. I'm a believer again at UFC 294, even on short notice in front of a hostile Abu Dhabi crowd.

Pick: Volkanovski (+200); OVER 3.5 rounds (-190)