UFC 282, the promotion’s final pay-per-view event of the year, is set to be a doozy when Jan Blachowicz (29-9, 12-6 UFC) and Magomed Ankalaev (18-1, 9-1 UFC) punch it out for the vacant UFC light heavyweight championship.
The original headlining fight between champion Jiri Prochazka and challenger Glover Teixeira was scrapped due to an injury on Prochazka’s end. When Teixeira declined an interim title fight vs Ankalaev, the UFC pivoted to Blachowicz vs Ankalaev for the new five-round main event.
The card will take place December 10 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, with prelim action starting at 6 p.m. ET, while the main card begins at 10 p.m. Sportsbook currently has the up-and-comer Ankalaev as the -345 favorite in the UFC 282 odds.
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UFC 282 Odds & Betting Notes
It’s easy to see why Teixeira turned down a short-notice fight vs Ankalaev. The 30-year-old Ankalaev has opened as the betting chalk in all 10 of his UFC fights and has never faced odds tighter than -205. He’s a wrecking ball at 205 pounds, riding a nine-fight win streak and showing no signs of slowing down. But there’s hope on Blachowicz’s end.
The Pole is a +270 underdog in the UFC 282 odds, a position he’s used to being in. In the UFC, Blachowicz is 6-4 as the favorite and, shockingly, 10-2 as the underdog. His resume is packed with upset wins over Aleksander Rakic (+170), Israel Adesanya (+215), Dominick Reyes (+205), Corey Anderson (+185) and Luke Rockhold (+195).
UFC 282 Odds: Blachowicz vs Ankalaev
Sportsbook has Ankalaev favored at -345 in the main event, while Blachowicz is the +270 underdog.
The tightest odds at UFC 282 can be found in a prelim bout between featherweights Erik Silva (-110) and TJ Brown (-110).
Bantamweight Steven Koslow (+270) is the biggest underdog on the card in his fight against Cameron Saaiman (-400).
UFC 282 Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Light Heavyweight Title Fight – Magomed Ankalaev (-345) vs Jan Blachowicz (+270)
- Lightweight – Paddy Pimblett (-285) vs Jared Gordon (+225)
- Catchweight – Santiago Ponzinibbio (-182) vs Alex Morono (+147)
- Middleweight – Dricus Du Plessis (-200) vs Darren Till (+160)
- Featherweight – Ilia Topuria (-150) vs Bryce Mitchell (+125)
- Prelims
- Heavyweight – Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-175) vs Christopher Daukaus (+145)
- Bantamweight – Raul Rosas Jr. (-240) vs Jay Perrin (+190)
- Middleweight – Edmen Shahbazyan (-305) vs Dalcha Lungiambula (+235)
- Middleweight – Chris Curtis (+138) vs Joaquin Buckley (-165)
- Featherweight – Billy Quarantillo (-175) vs Alexander Hernandez (+145)
- Featherweight – Erik Silva (-110) vs TJ Brown (-110)
- Bantamweight – Cameron Saaiman (-360) vs Steven Koslow (+270)
Odds as of December 10 via Sportsbook
- Date/Time: December 10, 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: T-Mobile Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV
Jan Blachowicz vs Magomed Ankalaev Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | -345 |
| Jan Blachowicz | +270 |
Our odds calculator suggests Ankalaev’s -325 status equates to an implied win probability of 76.47 percent, meaning a $10 bet on him pays out $13.08. Blachowicz’s +255 underdog status gives him an implied win probability of 28.17 percent and a $10 bet on him pays out $35.50.
Blachowicz: Need To Knows
- Ankalaev and Blachowicz profile as similar fighters – both guys are sturdy striker-wrestler types – with one distinct deviation: Jan is more of a one-shot power puncher, while Magomed is slick and explosive. Blachowicz’s best chance is to work tight, clinch and fire heavily when the two fighters break. A slugfest greatly favors Jan’s legendary “Polish Power” and Ankalaev can get overwhelmed by rapid volume – that’s how Thiago Santos knocked the Russian down for the first time at UFC Vegas 50.
- Blachowicz will be Ankalaev’s toughest test. Despite tangling with some scary opponents, the Pole has been finished just twice in his UFC career, although seven of his last 10 fights have ended UNDER 2.5 rounds. Remarkably, this will be Jan’s seventh consecutive fight as the event headliner. In five-round events, Blachowicz is 5-2, and five of those fights have gone UNDER 2.5 rounds.
- Jan’s last three fights have come against Aleksander Rakic (win – technical knockout), Glover Teixeira (loss – submission) and Israel Adesanya (win – unanimous decision).
Ankalaev: Need To Knows
- On the feet, the numbers tell us Ankalaev is a superior defender, absorbing just 2.14 significant strikes per minute (compared to Jan’s 2.77) and protecting himself from 60 percent of his opponent’s significant strikes (compared to Jan’s 54 percent). From a grappling standpoint, Blachowicz is far better than Ankalaev at securing takedowns, though the Russian has an impeccable 86 percent takedown denial rate.
- Magomed is typically a slow starter who warms up to fights by picking at his opponent and finding vulnerabilities. His patience and technical soundness afford him a significant advantage if he keeps his distance, hence why four of his nine UFC wins have come via decision. Before an injury-induced win over Anthony Smith at UFC 277, Ankalaev was on a roll of three straight decision wins. He’s yet to truly knock out a legitimate opponent in the UFC, as his early knockouts came against journeymen.
- Ankalaev’s last three fights have come against Smith (win – technical knockout), Santos (win – unanimous decision) and Volkan Oezdemir (win – unanimous decision).
Pick: Ankalaev to win (-345); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-145)
For an even deeper analysis of the Blachowicz vs Ankalaev odds, click here.
Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | -285 |
| Jared Gordon | +225 |
Lightweight “Paddy The Baddy” (19-3, 3-0 UFC) is among the UFC’s most popular fighters, and after the main event was adjusted, he’ll now fight Jared Gordon (19-5, 7-4 UFC) as the UFC 282 co-main event.
Pimblett: Need To Knows
- Pimblett, like Gordon, is strong on the feet, but the 27-year-old is excellent in ground exchanges, especially once he gets back mount. He climbed all over Jordan Leavitt at UFC London, and while both fighters were quite tired, Pimblett had the will to lock down the body triangle and squeeze for a rear-naked choke. There’s an avenue where Pimblett can knock Gordon down and secure a submission.
- Gordon has shown a bit of vulnerability to submissions in his career, but since Pimblett is a complete fighter, capable of putting guys out with hooks, knees and elbows, the safest bet is on Paddy to finish inside the distance (odds TBD). We also think it’ll be a very short fight, so there’s some logic for betting the UNDER 1.5 rounds or UNDER 2.5 rounds (odds TBD).
- Paddy’s last three fights have come against Leavitt (win – submission), Rodrigo Vargas (win – submission) and Luigi Vendramini (win – knockout).
Gordon: Need To Knows
- Gordon is a stubborn, confident dude. That attitude has carried him to the UFC, but it has also bitten him on multiple occasions. Charles Oliveira — who like Paddy is a lightweight with excellent jiu-jitsu — fought Gordon at UFC on ESPN 22 and knocked the American out cold. Pimblett will have a five-inch reach advantage over the shorter Gordon, meaning Flash must be aggressive to work his way in tight. That heavy-pressure strategy will also help Gordon limit the distance Paddy has for a takedown.
- Since Gordon will want to limit reach and takedowns, he’ll need to fight in close, which will undoubtedly lead to some spicy striking exchanges. We love this fight to finish inside the distance (odds TBD). Gordon’s last five fights have all gone OVER 2.5 rounds, but three of his four losses have come via knockout. Expect Paddy to get it done Saturday.
- Gordon’s last three fights have come against Leonardo Santos (win – unanimous decision), Grant Dawson (loss – submission) and Joe Solecki (win – split decision).
Pick: Pimblett inside the distance (-120); UNDER 1.5 rounds (+125)
Click here for our full breakdown of the Pimblett vs Gordon odds.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Alex Morono Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | -182 |
| Alex Morono | +147 |
The UFC 282 oddsboard received another adjustment this week when Robbie Lawler pulled out of his fight vs Santiago Ponzinibbio due to injury. Ponzinibbio (28-6, 10-5 UFC) will now face Alex Morono (22-7, 11-4 UFC) in a 180-pound catchweight bout.
Morono: Need To Knows
- This fight is quite evenly matched, even with Morono answering the call on less than a week's notice. Morono, like Ponzinibbio, is a pretty active striker whose wins come by out-comboing his opponents on the feet. The 32-year-old is gritty; he has a solid chin and won't back down from Ponzinibbio's inevitable pressures. If we're talking about power, though, I'd give the edge to Ponzinibbio. The Argentian is physically larger and has tangled with a much higher caliber of opponents lately. Basically, whatever Morono does, Santiago can do better.
- Give Morono credit for being an active fighter (this will be his fifth fight in the last two years), but it's been a while since he's finished an opponent. "The Great White" knocked out Donald Cerrone at UFC Vegas 26 and has followed that up with three consecutive unanimous decision wins. In fact, just three of Morono's 11 UFC wins have come via stoppage. When you look at this opponent Ponzinibbio, another guy who is on a decision streak, it's likely this fight is chalked to go the distance. Even if there's value on UNDER 2.5 rounds, for example, I don't see it as a smart bet.
- Lawler’s last three fights have come against Barberena (loss – technical knockout), Nick Diaz (win – technical knockout) and Neil Magny (loss – split decision).
Ponzinibbio: Need To Knows
- This fight is more even than the betting line suggests. Lawler is coming off a loss, but Santiago has lost three of his last four, including a knockout defeat vs Li Jingliang at UFC Fight Island 7. Ponzinibbio is best when he fights off his powerful jab and takes his time (basically the opposite of the strategy Barberena used to KO Lawler), which opens the door to heavy shots down the middle. I believe Lawler still has knockout power; I’m just unsure if he’ll have the cardio to use it late in this fight.
- After a three-year injury layoff from 2018 to 2021, Ponzinibbio hasn’t looked the same. “The Argentine Dagger” has lost three of four (2 DEC, 1 KO) and has lacked that explosiveness we saw from him early in his UFC career. His last two fights were narrow split-decision losses – eight of Ponzinibbio’s 15 UFC fights have gone the distance – and I can foresee a situation where this bout goes to the judges’ scorecards again.
- Ponzinibbio’s last three fights were against Michel Pereira (loss – split decision), Geoff Neal (loss – split decision) and Miguel Baeza (win – unanimous decision).
Pick: Ponzinibbio By Decision (TBD); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-165)
Darren Till vs Dricus Du Plessis Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dricus Du Plessis | -200 |
| Darren Till | +160 |
Englishman Darren Till (18-4-1, 6-4-1 UFC) will make his return to the Octagon for the first time in over a year when he faces Dricus Du Plessis (17-2, 3-0 UFC) in a middleweight bout.
Du Plessis: Need To Knows
- The South African is an exceptional athlete with an impressive background. A former kickboxing world champion and Extreme Fighting Championship (South African MMA) double champ, Du Plessis exploded onto the scene with two knockout wins to begin his UFC career. Through his first three fights, all wins (2 KO, 1 DEC), “Stillknocks” has landed 6.55 significant strikes per minute (SLpM), a startling number when compared to Till’s minuscule 2.26 SLpM. Du Plessis is an aggressive fighter with a boatload of knockouts and submissions to his name, which should set him up well against Till’s striking and wrestling.
- Du Plessis’ last fight vs Brad Tavares went to a decision, but his other two finished UNDER 1.5 rounds. He’s a stoppage machine and, given Till’s surprising regression over the last few years, there’s a path to an inside-the-distance win for Du Plessis in this one.
- The 28-year-old’s last three fights came against Tavares (win – unanimous decision), Trevin Giles (win – knockout) and Markus Perez (win – knockout).
Till: Need To Knows
- The king of injuries during training camp, Till has seen five of his fights canceled over the last two years as the shine from his star has faded considerably. The 29-year-old’s last fight, a submission loss to gatekeeper Derek Brunson, showed that he might no longer be the guy who bested Stephen Thompson or took Rob Whittaker to a brutal five-round decision. Till’s grappling seems suspect, and while Du Plessis profiles better as a striker than a wrestler, the South African could easily break out the grappling, which would immediately put Till at a disadvantage.
- I’m expecting this fight to finish inside the distance. A quick comb through Till’s resume tells us three of the last five fights have gone UNDER 2.5 rounds. Now, two of those came at welterweight, and he’s gone the distance with two very tough opponents (Whittaker, Kelvin Gastelum), but Till’s suspect performance vs Brunson screams fade, fade, fade.
- Till’s last three fights were against Brunson (loss – submission), Whittaker (loss – unanimous decision) and Gastelum (win – split decision).
Pick: Du Plessis inside the distance (+120); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-165)
Bryce Mitchell vs Ilia Topuria Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | +125 |
| Ilia Topuria | -150 |
The UFC 282 main card will start with a featherweight thriller between Bryce Mitchell (15-0, 5-0 UFC) and Ilia Topuria (12-0, 4-0 UFC).
Topuria: Need To Knows
- The 25-year-old has been in some wars since joining the UFC in 2020. Topuria’s background is in jiu-jitsu, though his sheer strength and speed make him a fearsome foe on the feet, too. Mitchell is also a jiu-jitsu specialist, except he fights off his back more often and the Georgian has more powerful hands. Topuria has only been seriously threatened once in his UFC career – vs Jai Herbert at UFC London – and that knockdown only happened because of Herbert’s reach and leverage. Mitchell doesn’t really stand a chance of hurting “El Matador” on the feet.
- On Topuria’s end, this fight is tough to handicap on the OVER/UNDER rounds. Three of his first four UFC fights have ended UNDER 1.5 rounds via knockout. On paper, it would seem likely that Topuria and Mitchell end up on the mat for most of this fight (perhaps with Topuria on top and Mitchell on bottom) as the duo battle for submissions. Instead, I’m thinking Topuria lays the pressure early, forcing yet another finish inside the distance.
- Topuria’s last three fights were against Herbert (win – knockout), Ryan Hall (win – knockout) and Damon Jackson (win – knockout).
Mitchell: Need To Knows
- “Thug Nasty” is famous among UFC fans for his camo shorts and grappling prowess – he owns just the second twister submission in promotion history – but he’s never been tested against an opponent like Topuria. Mitchell was able to spam takedowns and overmatch previous opponents Edson Barboza and Andre Fili, but that strategy won’t work against Topuria, who’s never been taken down in UFC competition. Topuria is stronger than Mitchell and equally versed in jiu-jitsu, meaning the Arkansas native will need to get creative to pull this one off.
- The OVER/UNDER on this fight will be hard to decide until we know how the lines open, though I like a bet on UNDER 2.5 rounds. Mitchell has taken five of his six UFC fights the full 15 minutes, but he’s tangled with patient fighters who don’t possess Topuria’s bulldog energy.
- Mitchell’s last three fights were against Barboza (win – unanimous decision), Fili (win – unanimous decision) and Charles Rosa (win – unanimous decision).
