The UFC’s world tour continues as the promotion stops in Perth, Australia for UFC 284 – and its main event is one of the best we’ve seen in years.
Islam Makhachev (23-1, 12-1 UFC) will defend his lightweight title for the first time against Alexander Volkanovski (25-1, 12-0 UFC), the UFC’s featherweight king who fancies a crack at double-champ status. The card takes place February 11 with prelims beginning at 6 p.m. ET and the main card commencing at 10 p.m.
The odds are steep – Makhachev is a staunch -400 favorite in the main event. Volkanovski comes in as the +300 underdog.
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UFC 284 Betting Odds Analysis
We take a quick dive into the UFC 284 odds for the main event.
Makhachev vs Volkanovski Line Movement
The odds for this fight have stayed pretty steady. On most sportsbooks, Makhachev opened in October as a -400 chalk, while Volkanovski opened around +300. That line has stayed true over the past few months, with Islam increasing as steep as -425 but always settling back around -400.
Makhachev vs Volkanovski Value Check
Since the UFC 284 odds are so lopsided for the main event, our value check is pretty one-sided. Makhachev is used to chalk – he’s been favored in all 13 UFC fights. There was sweet value on Islam at UFC 280, where he was -190 vs Charles Oliveira, but other than that, it’s been a well of heavy chalk (average -558 favorite in last five bouts).
Conversely, I see this as immense value on Volkanovski, which we’ll discuss later. The featherweight champ has never lost (while Islam has one KO loss). Anything in the +300 range will represent the longest odds of the Aussie’s career. He’s also 3-0 as the underdog in his UFC career, touting wins over Max Holloway (+145 at UFC 245), Jose Aldo (+110 at UFC 237) and Chad Mendes (+100 at UFC 232).
UFC 284 Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Lightweight Title Fight – Islam Makhachev (-400) vs Alexander Volkanovski (+300)
- Interim Featherweight Title Fight – Yair Rodriguez (-175) vs Josh Emmett (+150)
- Welterweight – Jack Della Maddalena (-334) vs Randy Brown (+250)
- Heavyweight – Justin Tafa (-125) vs Parker Porter (+100)
- Light Heavyweight – Jimmy Crute (-188) vs Alonzo Menifield (+162)
- Prelims
- Light Heavyweight – Tyson Pedro (-250) vs Modestas Bukauskas (+200)
- Featherweight – Don Shainis (+300) vs Jack Jenkins (-400)
- Featherweight – Joshua Culibao (-110) vs Melsik Baghdasaryan (-110)
- Flyweight – Kleydson Rodrigues (-334) vs Shannon Ross (+250)
- Women’s Strawweight – Loma Lookboonmee (-334) vs Elise Reed (+250)
- Featherweight – Blake Bilder (+110) vs Shane Young (-138)
- Lightweight – Jamie Mullarkey (-275) vs Francisco Prado (+225)
- Featherweight – Zubaira Tukhugov (-550) vs Elves Brenner (+400)
Odds as of February 10
- Date/Time: February 11, 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Perth, Australia
- Arena: RAC Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV
Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | -400 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | +300 |
Our odds calculator suggests Makhachev’s -400 status equates to an implied win probability of 80 percent, meaning a $10 bet on him pays out $12.50. Volkanovski’s +300 underdog status gives him an implied win probability of 25 percent, and a $10 bet on him pays out $40.
Makhachev: Need To Knows
- Islam is like Khabib Nurmagomedov, a relentless, smothering top-mount presence with a terrifying arsenal of submissions. Everything about Makhachev’s ground game is elite. The 31-year-old’s cardio, takedown efficiency and six submission wins demonstrate his proficiency as a wrestler. In this fight vs Volkanovski, there will be ample opportunity for Islam to attack the featherweight champ from the top position.
- Volkanovski has a good chin and has been knocked down just once in his career. His submission defense (remember the brutal guillotine vs Brian Ortega at UFC 266) will be tested like never before against Islam, though. Because of Volk’s durability, I like this fight to go OVER 2.5 rounds (-135), but the OVER 3.5 rounds (+115) has me on the fence. It’s very hard to imagine this fight going the distance. For now, I like UNDER 4.5 rounds (-210).
- Makhachev’s last three fights have come against Oliveira (win – submission), Bobby Green (win – technical knockout) and Dan Hooker (win – submission).
Volkanovski: Need To Knows
- So, how do those two styles match up? Well, in his 12-fight UFC career, “Alexander The Great” has spent just two minutes and seven seconds in bottom position. Since Volk’s 77.78 percent takedown defense is good but not elite, you can guarantee Islam lands at least one takedown and puts Alex on his back. From there, the fight will be decided. If Volkanovski can bounce to his feet – which he’s pretty good at thanks to his short, strong legs – then he’ll get a chance to use his striking. If he can’t stand, it’ll be a long night.
- Again, I’m thinking this fight ends inside the distance. I’ll be backing UNDER 4.5 (-210), but I stand by my original gut instinct to take OVER 2.5 rounds (-135). That’s one hell of a window, I know, but it’s the right call in this superfight.
- The 34-year-old’s last three fights have come against Holloway (win – unanimous decision), The Korean Zombie (win – technical knockout) and Ortega (win – unanimous decision).
Pick: Volkanovski to win (+300); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Check out our full Makhachev vs Volkanovski analysis here.
Yair Rodriguez vs Josh Emmett Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yair Rodriguez | -175 |
| Josh Emmett | +150 |
Fans at UFC 284 get a double-dipping of title action, as Yair Rodriguez (14-3, 9-2 UFC) takes on Josh Emmett (18-2, 9-2 UFC) for the interim featherweight championship.
Rodriguez: Need To Knows
- I like this matchup a lot for Rodriguez. The Mexican is a true striker, and he’s much taller than Emmett, whose roots come from wrestling. Rodriguez isn’t afraid to let his hands go, take risks and attack with forward pressure. Yair and Holloway fought to the death at UFC Vegas 42, with Rodriguez spinning some kicks, firing elbows and busting up Holloway (one of the greatest featherweights ever) real good. “El Pantera” lost that fight but showed why his speed and precision can be menacing, especially against slower fighters such as Emmett.
- The value on Rodriguez (-175) is good enough for a simple bet on him to win. However, the oddsmakers are counting on this fight to go OVER 4.5 rounds (-155), though I’m not sure I agree with that line. Rodriguez and Emmett are both hard to put away, and both guys are at their best when the fight goes the distance, but a sneaky bet on the UNDER 4.5 (+115) could net some value if you’re feeling lucky.
- Rodriguez’s last three fights came against Ortega (win – technical knockout/injury stoppage), Holloway (loss – unanimous decision) and Jeremy Stephens (win – unanimous decision).
Emmett: Need To Knows
- Emmett’s defense is what sets him apart from other fighters. He’s a massive 145-pounder with heavy hands, and he likes to turtle up when his opponent pushes in. In this fight, he’ll do plenty of shimmying with his guard high as Rodriguez tries to strike around the defense. Where Emmett can win is with explosive counters – Yair defends significant strikes at a measly 53 percent. If he catches the Mexican getting too fancy, it could be an early night and a KO victory.
- The 37-year-old has shared the cage with some killers, with his latest five-round bout coming against Calvin Kattar, one of the UFC’s purest boxers. Emmett survived that ordeal and won a split decision, which is why this fight is favored to go OVER 4.5 (-155). Emmett’s defense is elite but Yair is sneaky, and this fight could go off the rails fast. I would wager more than a unit, but I’m going with the UNDER 4.5 at +115.
- Emmett’s last three fights have come against Kattar (win – unanimous decision), Dan Ige (win – unanimous decision) and Shane Burgos (win – unanimous decision).
Pick: Rodriguez to win (-175); UNDER 4.5 Rounds (+115)
Jack Della Maddalena vs Randy Brown Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | -334 |
| Randy Brown | +250 |
Rising star Jack Della Maddalena (13-2, 3-0 UFC) will grace the main card in a welterweight fight vs Randy Brown (16-4, 10-4 UFC).
Brown: Need To Knows
- Brown is six-foot-three with a gargantuan 78-inch reach. At 170 pounds, that’s a huge weapon, especially against Della Maddalena and his 73-inch reach. “Rudeboy” will win this fight if he staggers his shots and uses all 15 minutes. He can beat the brakes off ordinary welterweights with hook combos, especially to the body. Della Maddalena might just be superhuman, though, which is why Brown is such a hefty underdog.
- Brown is on a four-fight win streak, with three of those bouts going the distance. Yet with Della Maddalena’s knockout ability, this fight is favored to finish UNDER 2.5 rounds (-155). The Aussie will march Brown down and bring the heat, which typically ends up with a first-round knockout. I think Della Maddalena will stop Brown in his tracks again at UFC 284.
- The 32-year-old’s last three fights were against Francisco Trinaldo (win – unanimous decision), Khaos Williams (win – split decision) and Jared Gooden (win – unanimous decision).
Della Maddalena: Need To Knows
- The 26-year-old is a fearsome puncher (akin to a Dustin Poirier or Max Holloway) riding a three-fight first-round knockout streak. Della Maddalena knows how to stride in tight and work combos (including punishing liver shots) without taking real damage. Brown’s long reach might disorient the Australian, but I’m still willing to bet he blitzes in and mows down his opponent. Until I see Della Maddalena get hurt, I won’t wager against him.
- Della Maddalena has ended his last three fights UNDER 1.5 rounds, which, if you’re brave enough, isn’t a bad bet for UFC 284. The safer pick is UNDER 2.5 rounds (-155), with an additional wager on Della Maddalena to win by KO/TKO (-138).
- Della Maddalena’s last three fights were against Danny Roberts, Ramazan Emeev and Pete Rodriguez. He won each bout by knockout.
Pick: Della Maddalena by KO/TKO (-138); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-155) with a sprinkle on UNDER 1.5 Rounds (+125)
Justin Tafa vs Parker Porter Odds & Pick
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | -125 |
| Parker Porter | +100 |
A heavyweight bout between hometown favorite Justin Tafa (5-3, 2-3 UFC) and Parker Porter (13-7, 3-2 UFC) will take place on the UFC 284 main card.
Tafa: Need To Knows
- Neither of these heavyweights are especially elite, but Tafa is better, and he should be able to win. The Aussie’s legs are like tree trunks (which helps his 100 percent takedown defense), and he flashed some athletic striking in his last fight vs Harry Hunsucker by wobbling the American with a head kick. Tafa’s UFC record is ugly, but he’s fought better lately, justifying his -125 status.
- This OVER/UNDER rounds total is high for a heavyweight fight. We can snag -145 value on UNDER 2.5 rounds, which is the direction I’m leaning in this fight. Three of Tafa’s five UFC fights have gone UNDER 2.5 (and 1.5, for that matter), so I’m confident he partakes in a stoppage at UFC 284.
- Tafa’s last three fights have come against Hunsucker (win – knockout), Jared Vanderaa (loss – unanimous decision) and Carlos Felipe (loss – split decision).
Porter: Need To Knows
- Porter walks around at 300 pounds and, like Tafa, has massive legs. However, the speed of their striking separates the two fighters. Tafa is just more explosive, and we’ve seen Porter get utterly outclassed by quicker heavyweights (Jailton Almeida, Chris Daukaus). Patience will be Tafa’s friend at UFC 284, as he’s best to move around, pick his spots and let Porter tire himself out.
- When you look at Porter’s resume, it’s understandable why the rounds total is set where it is. Three of Porter’s five fights (and all his wins) have gone the distance. I just don’t see this bout going 15 minutes without either guy getting folded. I’m a massive fan of the UNDER 2.5 at -145, and I’ll even double down and recommend a wager on UNDER 1.5 (+135).
- The 37-year-old’s last three fights have come against Almeida (loss – submission), Alan Baudot (win – unanimous decision) and Chase Sherman (win – unanimous decision).
Pick: Tafa to win (-125); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-145)
Jimmy Crute vs Alonzo Menifield Odds & Picks
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jimmy Crute | -188 |
| Alonzo Menifield | +162 |
The main card begins with a banger at light heavyweight between Alonzo Menifield (13-3, 6-3 UFC) and Jimmy Crute (12-3, 4-3 UFC).
Crute: Need To Knows
- Crute is a well-rounded fighter on a bit of a losing skid lately. He’s dropped two straight, and the oddsmakers are projecting a bounce-back, setting him as the -188 favorite. Those odds seem way too steep in Crute’s favor. The Aussie is a more complete fighter than Menifield, but these guys will most certainly trade hands in the center of the cage. When that happens, I’m leaning toward the ’dog.
- The 26-year-old is a stoppage machine. Only one of his seven UFC fights has gone beyond the first round. That’s a wild stat, and I’m counting on another first-round stoppage at UFC 284. Let’s call the UNDER 1.5 rounds (-150) my lock of the week.
- Crute’s last three fights have come against Jamahal Hill (loss – knockout), Anthony Smith (loss – injury stoppage) and Modestas Bukauskas (win – knockout).
Menifield: Need To Knows
- Menifield is a funny fighter. He’s jacked, absolutely loaded with power, but tends to gas out very early in fights. He can knock out anyone (Crute is light work in that regard) and at +162, I see tons of value in backing him. Here’s the thing: this fight has to finish early for Menifield to win. As I said before, Crute is smarter, he’s a better takedown artist and he defends with better technique. A barroom brawl is in Menifield’s best interests.
- Again, bet the UNDER 1.5 rounds (-150). Lock of the year. Go for UNDER 0.5 if you’re in a scandalous mood.
- The 35-year-old’s last three fights were against Misha Cirkunov (win – knockout), Askar Mozharov (win – technical knockout) and William Knight (loss – unanimous decision).
