After a remarkable record-breaking college career at Iowa, Caitlin Clark went No. 1 overall in the 2024 WNBA Draft and was installed at sportsbooks across the country as the monumental favorite to win Rookie of the Year.
Clark had -650 odds (86.7% implied probability to win) to win WNBA ROY and has been the odds-on favorite the entire season. Her odds even got as high as -3000 (96.8% implied probability) a few weeks ago after Los Angeles Sparks rookie Cameron Brink suffered a torn ACL and was lost for the season.
Brink opened with the second-best odds to Clark, but recently Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese has been making a serious push up the odds board. Reese opened north of 30-1 at sportsbooks to win the award, but now has a WNBA record 13 consecutive games with a double-double and was named the WNBA Rookie of the Month for June. She is now the clear second choice for ROY (+350) and is currently leading the WNBA in rebounding with 11.9 boards per game.
While both rookies are putting up historic numbers, sportsbook managers caution that the odds are always a little different when dealing with awards.
“Any time you have an awards market, you have to try to account for the voters' mindset," a senior editor at a notable sportsbook said in a release. “If Clark and Reese continue to shine, the key tiebreaker in voters' minds will likely be which rookie makes it to the playoffs. The Fever and Sky are both in the mix for the final two playoff spots, but the Sky have a much tougher schedule going forward.”
Among WNBA Rookie of the Year wagers at one sportsbook, Reese now has 57.5% of the bets and more than 81% of the total dollars wagered, more than 13 times the number of bets that Clark has amassed. Part of that also has to do with the big odds offered on Reese versus the miniscule payout for bettors for a similar bet on Clark.
“As popular as Clark is, a lot of bettors just don't like to lay that heavy of a price and she's been -1000 or shorter for the award for a lot of the season,” the senior editor noted. “Instead, they'll opt for popular longshots with potential for bigger payouts. Just look at Clark – she doesn't have much Rookie of the Year interest as a huge favorite, however, she's received the second-most tickets and handle for MVP when she's been +1000 or longer nearly the entire time this market has been up.”
One oddsmaker I reached out to said that Reese had “zero chance” to win the award, even with the big odds shift, noting that Clark had 90% of the handle in the WNBA ROY market at his sportsbook.
Clark is averaging 16.1 points, six rebounds and 7.4 assists per game on 39.3% shooting this season, while Reese goes for 14.1 points and 11.9 rebounds per game on 41.8% shooting from the field. Clark just became the first rookie in WNBA history to record a triple double.
The two players will be on the same side for the WNBA All-Star Game on July 20 in Phoenix.
