I've got two new MLB expert picks to kick off the week.
While the real drama of baseball season is the MLB trade deadline these days, we've still got big games to play. The Orioles will trot out their new trade acquisition, Zach Eflin, against the Blue Jays. The Cubs and Reds, on the other hand, try to prove to management they should be buyers.
Here are my two MLB picks for July 29th:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Orioles -1.5 (+114) vs Blue Jays
Blue Jays vs Orioles Odds - Game Time: 3:07 pm ET
Game 1 of this double header is Eflin’s first start for the Orioles after they acquired the righty for a trio of prospects last week. But, he gets a familiar foe in Toronto.
The veteran righty is 3-2 against the Blue Jays over the last two seasons. In 92 career at-bats against active Toronto hitters, Eflin has allowed just a .295 OBP and three homers to Blue Jays bats.
Eflin just pitched 5.2 innings against these same Blue Jays, allowing two runs, striking out four, and not walking a single batter. That start was with the Rays, though, while this one comes for a Baltimore team that has a better bullpen and better offense backing it up.
It looks like Eflin and the Orioles are gonna be a great match, at least when it comes to beating Toronto. The Orioles are 13-6 against the Jays over the last two seasons.
The reason I'm backing this one on the runline is that Baltimore is MLB's best runline squad this season. The O's are 57-50 covering the runline, good for +14.9 units.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Reds (-106) vs Cubs
Reds vs Cubs Odds - Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
If you just look at the Cubs’ two most recent games, you’d think they were an offensive powerhouse (scoring 16 runs across the two contests). But, look back a bit further and you’ll see they really struggle to score.
Even if you include the 16 runs in the past two games, the Cubs are averaging just 2.55 runs per game over their last nine contests. They’re 4-4 in that stretch.
That lack of offense is going to be a big issue with Jameson Taillon on the mound tonight.
While Taillon has been pretty solid this season with a 7-5 record (+0.85 units) and 2.96 ERA, his history against the Reds is scary. Last year, the starter allowed 11 ER across three starts against the Reds and current Cinci bats have a career .928 OPS against Taillon.
If the Cubs offense no-shows tonight, they’re in for a loss.
