MLB Bullpen Betting Trends: Guardians Boast Top 'Pen

These MLB bullpen betting trends help make bad MLB bullpens profitable (and good ones, too).

Below, I've broken down the best and worst bullpens in baseball and how you can capitalize on them to make some betting profit:

2024 MLB Worst Bullpen Betting Trends

Data courtesy of Odds Shark’s database as of September 6th, 2024

The Rockies have had the worst bullpen in baseball in each of the last three seasons. Sure, part of this is the Coors Field effect, but it's also just a complete lack of talent.

Colorado's three most used relievers all have ERAs over 5.5. Their current closer, Tyler Kinley, is rocking a beautiful 6.18 EAR with 30 walks in fewer than 60 innings — great stuff. If the Rockies ever have a lead late, they're the best live-fade in baseball due to the awful 'pen.

The Blue Jays are one of baseball's most disappointing teams this season, and their bullpen is largely responsible. Things have gotten even worse after they traded key relievers like Trevor Richards, Yimi Garcia, and Nate Pearson at the deadline.

2024 MLB Best Bullpen Betting Trends

Data courtesy of Odds Shark’s database as of September 6th, 2024

We need to talk about the Guardians' bullpen. Cleveland has a league average offense and okay rotation, but the main reason they're in contention for one of the AL's best records is this group of relievers. Guys like Hunter Gaddis, Scott Barlow, and Cade Smith are solid late-inning options, but it's Emmanuel Clase who carries the load. The best closer in baseball is rocking a 0.70 ERA in over 50 innings, with just six walks to 43 strikeouts on the season.

Naturally, this bullpen dominance helps the Guardians close out games at a better rate than any other team. They've blown just 15 saves in 61 attempts, for a 75% successful conversion rate. The Reds don't make an appearance on this top bullpens list, but they actually have the fewest blown saves in baseball (14).

If you’re looking for more MLB betting resources, check out Odds Shark’s MLB Betting Hub as well as our MLB computer picks page.

How To Profit Off Bad Bullpens

The best way to profit off these shaky bullpens is by tracking games and keeping an eye out for live-betting situations.

If these bad late-game pitching squads have a one- or two-run lead heading into the final few frames, it’s worth sprinkling some cash on the opposition for a hefty underdog payout! All of the top baseball books have live-betting options, so sign up and watch out for a leaky bullpen getting the lead.

Bad Bullpen? Bet The OVER

Another way to capitalize on bad bullpens and shaky late-game pitching is by betting the OVER.

The Blue Jays' offense hasn't been great this year, but because of their bad bullpen they've still been a great OVER team. Toronto has hit the OVER at a 58-47-3 clip (55.2%) this year, good for sixth-most in baseball.

How To Bet On MLB Baseball

There are three main ways to bet on MLB, in the form of moneyline betting, runline betting or total runs. Moneyline betting is simple, where you just choose the winner of a game. Total runs betting is where you bet on whether the total runs scored in a game will go OVER or UNDER a preset total.

Like most spread bets, for an MLB runline you’re betting that the favorite (denoted by a minus sign) will win by a set number of runs (usually 1.5), or that the underdog (denoted by a plus) will win outright or lose by less than a set number of runs. At any sportsbook, you’ll notice MLB runline spread odds are listed like this:

In this example, the Blue Jays are 1.5-run favorites. If you believe that the Jays will win by more than 1.5 runs, you can bet on them to win. If you think the Twins will win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs, you should bet on them!

Check out our odds calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds.