MLB MVP Odds: Can Witt Jr. Catch Judge?

The latest MLB MVP odds seem to show that both the AL and NL race are close to locked up. Aaron Judge has a serious lead in the American League MVP race while Shohei Ohtani is running away with things in the National League.

But, there is still a bit of value I see in both of these MLB MVP odds markets:

American League MVP Odds

Odds as of September 19th from BetMGM

Aaron Judge tumbled after a shaky start in early April, but boy has he rebounded. The Yankees slugger currently leads the league in HR, RBI, OBP, and OPS. Frankly, this is his award to lose and the odds reflect it.

Nearing the end of the season, all AL MVP long shots hinge on a Judge injury. But, we've seen that happen plenty throughout Judge's career, with him playing fewer than 120 games in four of his eight previous seasons.

Best AL MVP Value Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+1100)

This is probably the best bet left on either the AL or NL MVP odds boards. Not only is Witt Jr. a value pick, but I think he has a real chance to win this award with a few weeks left in the season.

I mentioned off the top that a Judge injury is still in play, and if that happens Witt will probably sneak out an AL MVP. But, even if Judge doesn't get hurt there's a slight shot.

Witt is currently second to Judge in bWAR (9.2 to 9.8) and essentially tied with him in fWAR (10 to 10.1). The Royals infielder leads baseball in hits, runs, and batting average and has been a key reason for the Royals' shot at the postseason. Judge is valuable, for sure, but there's a real case to be made that Witt Jr. is the most valuable player in baseball, to his team — and that's what this award is.

National League MVP Odds

Odds as of September 19th from BetMGM

Shohei Ohtani has been the Dodgers' rock this year. While other stars have missed time to injury, Ohtani keeps chugging along and bashing homers.

The DH leads the NL in many key hitting statistics (runs, home runs, slugging, and OPS). Ohtani's putting up a very similar offensive season to the one that won him AL MVP last year — though he's doing it without the pitching.

NL MVP Value Pick: Francisco Lindor

The only player I think has even a remote chance of catching Ohtani is Lindor. The Mets shortstop has a slight lead over Ohtani in fWAR and is 0.7 behind in bWAR, but it's important to remember that Ohtani is doing it all without playing any defense.

I don't think Lindor is as good of a value pick as Witt Jr. in the AL, but an Ohtani injury could open up a shot for Francisco. He'll have to lead his Mets to the postseason to have a real case, too.

MLB MVP Award History

Recently, outfielders and first baseman have had a grip on the MVP races and that's pretty true for most of MLB history. Here are the all-time MLB MVP winners by position:

MLB Teams With Most MVPs

While MLB's most iconic franchises lead history with the most MVPs, there are three teams that have never had an MVP:

How To Read MLB MVP Odds

The above chart features the MLB MVP odds for each top player in the American League and National League. At your sportsbook of choice, betting lines for MVP could look something like this:

Mookie Betts +650

Ronald Acuna Jr. +1000

Freddie Freeman +1200

This means that Betts is the favorite since he has the lowest odds and the highest chance of winning the prop, according to oddsmakers. If you were to bet $100 on Betts and he won, you would get a payout of $750 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $650.

On the other hand, if you strongly believe that Freeman will shine in Los Angeles, a winning $100 bet on him would yield $1,300 – your $100 comes back along with your prize of $1,200.

Our odds calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.