After a 2-0 Monday for my MLB expert picks, I'm trying to find two more winners for you today.
Sometimes, handicapping can get a little bit chaotic around the MLB trade deadline. But, there are also opportunities to take advantage of a weakened selling team. That's what I'm trying to do by targeting the White Sox as one of my fades today.
Here are my two MLB picks for July 30th:
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MLB Expert Pick Today: Phillies (-120) vs Yankees
Yankees vs Phillies Odds - Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
Folks, we've got a Gerrit Cole problem. Since coming back from injury, the Yankees ace has a 5.40 ERA and 5.53 FIP in seven starts. He's allowed nine homers already, which is almost half of all the homers he allowed last season.
The Yankees are 4-3 in his outings, good for -0.19 units. Last time out, Cole let up six runs to the Mets, and now he faces the elite Phillies offense.
On the season, the Phillies have the sixth-highest team OPS and sixth-most runs scored. The Phillies also counter with Aaron Nola on the mound, an ace who has allowed over three earned runs in just one of his last seven starts.
A big day from JT Realmuto would really help Philly's chances, as the catcher has 11 hits in 20 career at-bats against Cole. You can bet Realmuto's OVER 0.5 hits at -215.
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MLB Expert Pick Today: Royals (-185) vs White Sox
Royals vs White Sox Odds - Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
Did you miss Michael Wacha becoming an elite pitcher? The Royals righty has a 3.65 ERA on the season and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in each of his last 10 starts. In fact, he's allowed one or fewer runs in five of those outings. The Royals are 4-1 (+2.28 units) in Wacha's last five starts.
Wacha now faces a White Sox team that sucks and might suck more than usual tonight. As the worst team in the league, Chicago has spent the last few days trading any players of value — sending out SP Erick Fedde and OF Tommy Pham yesterday. They may move a few more regular bats or relievers before tonight's game.
Wacha owns the remaining White Sox bats, too, with opposing hitters owning a .141 career average and .413 OPS against Wacha in 99 career at-bats.
This line might not be great value, but I don't see how the selling Sox can compete tonight.
