We're back to some MLB expert picks today after the dust has settled from the trade deadline.
I'm focusing on the big markets today, with picks on the Padres vs Dodgers and Phillies vs Yankees. My big bet is on San Diego starter Dylan Cease keeping his hot streak going, after the hurler pitched a no-hitter last time out.
Here are my two MLB picks for July 31st:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Padres (-120) vs Dodgers
Padres vs Dodgers Odds - Game Time: 8:40 pm ET
Dylan Cease is on what we call a legendary hot streak. The Padres pitcher has allowed no runs and just TWO total hits across his last three starts (including a no-hitter last time out). He's rocking 30 strikeouts to seven walks in that stretch.
Cease faces the Dodgers tonight, which would seem like a challenge, but he's actually great against LA. Current Dodgers bats have a collective .208 average and .662 OPS against Cease. Don't bet on any Jason Heyward prop overs tonight, as the LA outfielder is 1/9 against Cease in his career.
The Dodgers do counter with Clayton Kershaw in this one, but he looked just okay in his first start of the season last week. The lefty lasted just four innings and gave up two runs (for a 4.50 ERA). Current Padres hitters also have a solid .260 average and .744 OPS against him, with lefty killers like Manny Machado and Ha-Seong Kim doing most of the damage.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Phillies (-136) vs Yankees
Phillies vs Yankees Odds - Game Time: 12:35 pm ET
The Yankees haven't won a Nestor Cortes start since June 18th. In fact, Cortes has been the second-least profitable pitcher in baseball this season, with the Yankees rocking a 7-15 record in his starts for -9.8 units of profit. Only Chris Flexen has been worse.
After Cortes heard his name thrown around in trade rumours all day yesterday, I think he'll be a little rattled coming into today (especially considering he hasn't finished the fifth inning in each of his last three starts).
Against a Phillies team that ranks top-six in MLB in both runs and OPS, Cortes can't afford to be second-guessing himself.
