You made it to the weekend, so why not reward yourself an MLB expert pick today? First, I'm banking on the Rays (+100) relying on a new arm to best the Rangers, while the Red Sox (+120) are destined to hand the Yankees their fourth straight loss.
Here are my MLB expert picks for today:
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MLB Expert Pick Today: Rays (+100) vs Rangers
Tampa Bay vs Texas Odds - Game Time: 8:05 pm ET
I successfully faded the Rangers yesterday at plus-money value, and Friday marks a swell opportunity to do the same. And we'll have a few factors working in our favor.
Friday marks the long-awaited return of young Rays righty Shane Baz, who has been on the shelf since 2022 after undergoing elbow surgery. The 25-year-old worked 10 rehab starts, posting a 4.12 ERA (meh) with 10.1 K/9 (much better). He's been grinding in Triple-A, and if the Rays say he's ready, I'll bet on Baz's upside. Only Marcus Semien from Texas has seen Baz before, and he's 0-for-2. The element of surprise is heavily in Tampa's favor.
On the other end, Michael Lorenzen goes for Texas. He's been fine this season (3.40 ERA), but the Rangers have let him down tremendously, partially due to poor run support (3.29 per game) and a weak bullpen. Texas is 4-10 SU in games Lorenzen starts (costing bettors -$500 based on $100 bets), including three losses in his last four outings, with the bullpen allowing eight runs during that span. The Rangers bullpen is weak beyond closer Kirby Yates, allowing a 4.48 ERA, the fifth-worst mark in baseball. That'll be problematic, as Lorenzen has pitched beyond the sixth inning in just four of 14 starts this year.
Finally, the Rays bats are hot. Tampa Bay owns a .781 team OPS over the last 14 days, the sixth-best mark in baseball during that span. Brandon Lowe has finally found his power stroke (1.112 OPS), while catcher Ben Rortvedt has made the most of extra playing time (1.100 OPS). Lowe's OVER 0.5 total bases (-170) is an easy play for me today, as is Rortvedt's less chalky OVER 0.5 total bases (-120).
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MLB Expert Pick Today: Red Sox (+120) vs Yankees
Boston vs New York Odds - Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
My second expert picks is on the Red Sox ML today, and our MLB computer picks agree with me. Always good to have some simulated support!
The wheels are coming off in New York, having lost eight of its last 10, including three straight to the lowly Reds, who secured the sweep at Yankee Stadium yesterday. Not only are hitters like Alex Verdugo (.579 OPS) and Anthony Volpe (.382 OPS) ice cold over the last two weeks, but the Yanks pitching staff is in complete disarray. New York arms are responsible for a 6.32 ERA, baseball's worst mark in the last 14 days.
Disaster? Maybe. And Nestor Cortes goes for the Yankees Friday. While he's been one of the few pitchers immune from New York's struggles, Cortes enters a buzzsaw in Boston, a club that has punished lefties to the tune of an .831 OPS over the last month -- the Sox might just slug Cortes' soft stuff to death.
And, the cherry on top if you will, Boston starter Tanner Houck dominates active Yankees hitters, holding them to a .173/.271/.269 slash line in 52 at-bats.
