It's Monday (boo), but let's make it better with a pair of MLB expert picks today.
I've found some value in the underdog Diamondbacks (+158) and think the favored Guardians (-148) are gonna beat up on the struggling Tigers. Here are my two MLB expert picks for today:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Guardians (-148) vs Tigers
Guardians vs Tigers Odds - Game Time: 6:41 pm ET
The Tigers just swept the Reds, but they're honestly not playing great baseball lately. They're 8-12 in the last 20 games (-4.1 units) and have one of MLB's worst offenses in that stretch.
Over the last month, the Tigers have scored just 4.1 runs per game with a team OPS of .675 (sixth-worst). The Guardians, on the other hand, are 12-8 in that stretch with the sixth-highest team OPS, scoring 4.8 runs per contest.
Add in the fact that Detroit's tossing out Keider Montero on the mound, and I think the Guardians are gonna run away with this one. In three outings this season, Montero is 1-2 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.400 WHIP. He wasn't much better in Triple-A before getting called up, either, with a 5.03 ERA in 13 starts down in the minors.
The Guardians are already 2-1 (+.62 units) against the Tigers this season and I think they add another win tonight. I'm not opposed to a Cleveland runline (-1.5 at +115) bet, either.
MLB Expert Pick Today: DBacks (+158) vs Braves
Braves vs Diamondbacks Odds - Game Time: 9:41 pm ET
I think the Braves are rightfully favored in this one, with Chris Sale facing off against rookie Yilber Diaz on the mound. But, the underdog value on the Snakes is too good to pass up.
If you look at historical data, it tells you that this current Diamondbacks lineup may struggle against Sale. Current Arizona hitters have a .237 average and .258 on-base percentage against the lefty in 76 career at-bats. But, this year's DBacks lineup is a bit different.
They've actually destroyed lefties like Sale so far this season, owning a team .778 OPS against southpaws (good for fifth in MLB). As well, they're hot, ranking out with the third-best team OPS over the last 30 days (.806). Arizona has scored 148 runs in the last 26 games (5.5 per contest).
The Diamondbacks are generally on a hot streak, too, clawing back up to .500. They're 6-2 in the last eight games, up 4.3 units for bettors in that stretch. Only the Orioles have a better moneyline record than the DBacks in the last 10 games.
If there's one secret weapon for the DBacks tonight, it's OF Randal Grichuk. The righty slugger has a .300 career average and .983 OPS in 20 at-bats against Sale. You can bet him to get a hit tonight at around -170.
