I nailed my two picks yesterday, so let's keep the wins rolling with some MLB expert picks for Thursday.
I'm going back to the National League after some success there on Wednesday, focusing my Thursday picks on the Phillies and the Cubs/Giants affair. Here are my MLB expert picks for June 27th:
MLB Expert Picks: June 27th, 2024
You can jump directly to today's picks here:
Pick 1: Phillies -1.5 (-115) vs Marlins
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 6:21 pm ET
After trading Luis Arraez to the Padres, the Marlins offense has gotten even worse, naturally. Miami is 2-4 in the last six games scoring just 2.1 runs per contest. The Phillies are 4-2 in their last six, averaging 5.8 runs per game. There's a clear difference in recent form here.
The one thing that gives me pause here is Miami's hitters have been weirdly successful against Philly starter Zack Wheeler in the past. Current Marlins have a .290 average and .895 OPS against Wheeler in 93 career at-bats. But with Wheeler's strikeout ability and Miami's 25.8% strikeout rate over the last month (third-highest in MLB), I don't think the Marlins will be much of a threat today.
Wheeler is 2-2 in his last four starts against the Marlins, but he hasn't been tagged with the loss in either of those Ls.
Pick 2: Cubs vs Giants Under 7.5 Runs (-110)
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 3:45 pm ET
In the last two weeks, the Giants rank 10th in MLB with a .747 team OPS while the Cubs rank 26th with a .659 OPS. That alone should be enough to consider the UNDER tonight, but we’ve got one hell of a pitching matchup.
Shota Imanaga has had a few stinkers lately, but 90% of his starts this year have been absolutely brilliant. The Cubs hurler has a 2.96 ERA on the season and has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his last ten outings. Jordan Hicks has been similarly great, rocking a 3.24 ERA and allowing three or fewer runs in eight of his last 10. If these starters pitch to their abilities, this will be an ieasy under.
The one area for concern here is the bullpens. Both squads have bottom-12 reliever ERAs so far this season with ERAs over 4.2. If you want to eliminate the ‘pens from this equation, take the first-five inning under 3.5 (+116).
