I'm back with two more MLB expert picks for Friday.
I'm focused on Jacob deGrom's return for Texas. However, aside from taking a side in this one, I honed in on a prop — fading deGrom's strikeouts against the Mariners.
Here are my two MLB picks for September 13th:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Brewers (-108) vs DBacks
Brewers vs DBacks - Game Time: 9:41 pm ET
I don't understand why the Brewers aren't favored by more in this one.
Milwaukee sends out Freddy Peralta to the mound, their ace pitcher who has won 10 games this season and owns a sub-3.2 ERA in his last eight outings. The DBacks counter with Eduardo Rodriguez, who's lost his last two starts and owns a 5.83 ERA on the year. Rodriguez has yet to deliver a quality start this season.
There's also a historical edge to this pitching matchup. Current DBacks batters have just a .206 collective average and .590 OPS against Peralta. Brewers hitters have a .706 OPS, with Gary Sanchez leading the way with a 1.023 mark and two homers. Sanchez is +500 to hit a homer today.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Jacob deGrom UNDER 6.5 Ks (-120)
Rangers vs Mariners Odds - Game Time: 10:11 pm ET
Jacob deGrom hasn't taken an MLB field since April 2023. But, the Rangers ace returns tonight. It'll be fun to see him back out there, but I don't think he's going to have an incredible day.
deGrom looked great in four rehab outings, allowing just one run across 10.2 innings. But, the big issue is he never pitched more than four innings or 65 pitches (and never reached more than five strikeouts in a start). How is deGrom supposed to strike out OVER 6.5 batters tonight when he wasn't even going that deep in the minors?
The Rangers are going to be extra careful with their ace — I wouldn't expect him to pitch more than five innings, and therefore fall well below this 6.5 K line.
Picks made as of September 13 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
