Let's kick off the week with two MLB expert picks today!
I'm fading a Cubs team that has nothing to play for today against a Phillies team still fighting for postseason seeding. I also like the UNDER in the Jays vs Sox contest.
Here are my two MLB picks for September 23rd:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Phillies -1.5 (+122) vs Cubs
Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds -- Game Time 6:41 p.m. ET
When we get to late September, one of the first things I consider when betting is motivation. The Cubs have nothing to play for, having just been eliminated from playoff contention. Though the Phils have locked up the NL East, they're still just three-games up on the Brewers for a National League first-round postseason bye, and neck-and-neck with the Dodgers for the top seed.
But, this bet is also about a pitching mismatch. The Phillies send out ace Aaron Nola, who has held current Cubs hitters to a .177 career average and .515 OPS. The Cubs counter with a bullpen game. That's going to be a problem for Chicago, as the Cubs have the fourth-worst bullpen FIP in MLB in September.
Three of the Phillies last four wins have covered the runline, so I'm not scared of taking the extra run in this game. As well, the Cubs are just 74-82 on the runline this season. Chicago has been one of the worst runline teams in baseball this season, with -18.3 units of profit in the market.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Blue Jays vs Red Sox UNDER 8 (-108)
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds - Game Time: 7:08 pm ET
The Red Sox have scored over eight runs in their last two games, but before that Boston's offense was ice cold. In the five games previous, the Sox averaged just 1.8 runs per game. The Jays are running pretty cold, too, scoring just nine total runs in their last five games.
But the real reason I'm on this under is the pitching matchup. In 51 career at-bats, Tanner Houck has held active Toronto hitters to a .176 average and .482 OPS.
Chris Bassitt is just as good against the Sox, holding Boston hitters to a .197 average and .509 OPS. The Toronto righty has made three starts against Boston this year. The UNDER 8.0 has hit in two of those outings and Bassitt has allowed just five total runs in that stretch (19.2 innings pitched).
