I'm here to break down Game 1 of the Guardians vs Yankees American League Championship Series.
The sportsbooks give Carlos Rodon and the Yanks an edge in this opening contest, slating New York as -164 favorites. With Alex Cobb on the mound, the Guardians are +138 dogs.
I'll break down the ALCS Game 1 odds and picks below:
Guardians vs Yankees Game 1 Odds
Guardians vs Yankees, Oct. 11, 8:09 pm ET
| Team | Runline | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | +1.5 (-156) | +138 | O 7.5 (-105) |
| New York Yankees | -1.5 (+130) | -164 | U 7.4 (-115) |
As of October 14th at FanDuel
Guardians vs Yankees Pick - Game 1
Yankees -1.5 (+130)
I'm a little worried about Carlos Rodon against the Guards. The Yankees starter let up four runs in his DS start against the Royals and Cleveland posted the seventh-best team OPS against lefties this season. But, New York's supremacy against righties should be the big differentiator here.
The Yankees were the best offense in baseball against RHP this season, posting a team OPS of .776 and hitting a league-leading 178 dingers against righties. Plus, they have the best team OPS against righties of any team remaining in the playoffs (.716). The Yankees have won all three games this postseason against right-handed starters.
The Yankees have also covered the runline in six of their last eight wins. So, if you agree the Yankees are going to win, this -1.5 wager is the right bet.
Guardians vs Yankees Player Prop Pick
Alex Cobb UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts (+126)
Alex Cobb made his first start in over a month last week against the Tigers, lasting just three innings and giving up two runs while striking out a pair. I wouldn't expect much different from Cobb tonight. As I mentioned earlier, the Yankees crush righties like Cobb. They also posted the ninth-fewest strikeouts against righties this season and have just 28 strikeouts in seven games so far this playoffs (the fewest of any remaining team).
Cobb has also been beaten around by current Yankees his his career, with active NY hitters posting a collective .955 OPS against him. Guys like Gleyber Torres (1.566), Alex Verdugo (1.214), and Juan Soto (1.939) really get to Cobb and should chase him early.
Guardians vs Yankees Betting Trends
- The Yankees are 1-5 on the runline in their last five home games
- Alex Cobb has gone over 2.5 strikeouts in 13 of his 17 road starts
- Aaron Judge hasn't had an RBI in five games
- The UNDER has hit in 18 of the Guardians' last 14 games
