I'm back on my MLB expert picks game this week, starting off with two American League picks.
I'm honing in on two intra-division matchups with some pretty significant playoff implications (even though it's just May). Both of these teams feature top-tier starters, too.
Find out where my picks are going in my MLB expert picks for May 27th:
MLB Expert Picks: May 27th, 2024
Pick 1: Mariners (+108) vs Astros
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 9:41 pm ET
The key for me in this matchup is a Framer Valdez fade. The Astros lefty got rocked by the Angels last time out, allowing 10 hits, three homers, and eight total runs. He has a 4.32 ERA on the season and the Astros have lost four of his seven outings.
Current Mariners hitters also have Valdez’s number, owning a collective .301 average and .801 OPS against the lefty in 136 at-bats. Jorge Polanco in particular has seven hits in 17 career at-bats against Valdez, and I like his Over 0.5 hits line at -165 tonight.
I’ll admit the Mariners bats have been a bit of an issue this year, but I don’t think they’ll need many runs with Miller on the mound. And, Seattle has surpassed five runs in three of their last seven games, including a nine-run explosion on Sunday.
The Mariners counter Valdez with Bryce Miller, who has lost his last three starts but still owns a 3.53 ERA on the season. He’s also beat the Astros in three of his last four starts, allowing just eight total earned runs across the four outings. Last year, Miller pitched two separate shutouts against Houston.
Pick 2: Twins (-162) vs Royals
Matchup Preview - Game Time: 2:11 pm ET
The Twins are another squad rocking a hot starter tonight. Joe Ryan has also carved through Royals hitters in his career, allowing just a .154 average and .480 OPS in 91 career at-bats against current Royals. Stud shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. in particular just can’t hit Ryan, with only three hits in 19 career at-bats (good for a .463 OPS).
I am a bit scared of Royals starter Alec Marsh tonight, as Kansas City has won in seven of his eight outings this season and the pitcher has a 2.72 ERA on the year. However, in his one career appearance against the Twins, Minnesota won that contest 5-0.
The Twins also enter this game with a 4-1 record in their last five.
