Padres vs Dodgers Odds & Picks Game 5: Darvish Can't Lose

I'm here to break down Game 5 of the battle for SoCal, with Padres vs Dodgers odds to decide the NLDS.

The sportsbooks think the Dodgers have a slight edge at -146, but I'm backing the underdog Padres. Yu Darvish has been a beast lately, so I'm backing San Diego to finish off the upset.

Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 Odds

Padres vs Dodgers, Oct. 11, 8:09 pm ET

As of October 10th at FanDuel

Padres vs Dodgers Pick - Game 5

Padres ML (+124)

Yu Darvish has been simply unbeatable these days. The Padres have won Darvish's last six starts and nine of his last 11 outings. The veteran righty has also won three-straight starts against the Dodgers, including allowing just one run over his last 14 innings against Los Angeles.

I don't care how good Yamamoto pitches or how formidable the Dodgers' lineup is, Darvish is going to keep the Padres in this game. So, at +124 underdog value I think it's a pretty clear bet.

I also think there's a chance Yamamoto blows up tonight. He's allowed 11 runs in his last three starts (11 innings) and has let up 13 runs in three starts against the Padres this season. 

Padres vs Dodgers Player Prop Pick

Darvish UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs (-115)

I mentioned I'm betting on Darvish to carry the Padres, so why not double down. Darvish has allowed more than 2.5 earned runs in just one of his last five outings. He's also been great on the road lately, too, letting up under 2.5 ER in four of his last five road starts (as shown by Outlier below).

Darvish also has a history of carving Dodger bats. He's allowed just one total run across his last two starts against LA and has held active Dodger batters to a .192 combined average and .592 OPS in his career. Key LA players like Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith are both hitting under .200 lifetime against Darvish.

Padres vs Dodgers Betting Trends