It's AL East day for my MLB player props on Tuesday. I'm honing in on baseball's hottest hitter Jarren Duran and predicting a better second start for New York's Gerrit Cole.
Check out my two MLB player props for June 25th:
June 25th MLB Hit Prop: Jarren Duran Over 0.5 Hits (-290)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
Duran has quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. He leads the American League in doubles and triples right now, hitting .293 on the season with an .843 OPS.
In his last five games, Duran has 12 hits — a multi-hit game in each of the five contests. Why would he stop now?
Jarren Duran is doing it all for the @RedSox 🔥🔥#DirtyWater | @TheMayorsOffice pic.twitter.com/p2t0N47ARx
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 25, 2024
The Red Sox outfielder faces off against Toronto’s Kevin Gausman, who he’s had fair success against in the past. Duran has six hits (five for extra-bases) in 13 career at-bats against Gausman, good for a .462 average.
I know this line isn’t the juiciest betting value, but this is about as locked up of an OVER for hits as I can find. I'd also consider over 1.5 total bases for Duran in this matchup.
June 25th MLB Strikeout Prop: Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 Ks (-125)
Yankees vs Mets Matchup Preview - Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
I (successfully) faded Cole in his first start of 2024, taking the ace's strikeout under against the Orioles. I did that because Cole wasn't fully stretched out yet and he was facing off against a Baltimore lineup that had success against the Yankees righty.
Now, Cole has an MLB start under his belt and faces a far softer opponent. I'm still not sure if Cole will go six or more innings, but I don't think that should matter here. Cole has held current Mets hitters to a .173 career average and .591 OPS in 110 career at-bats.
Cole has gone over 5.5 Ks in each of his last two outings against the Mets, too, totaling 14 Ks in those games. Last time out, he struck out eight Mets batters in six innings.
My only concern here is the Queens sluggers have been pretty good at avoiding Ks. In June, Mets batters had a 20.2% strikeout rate, which is eighth-best in MLB. Cole is a different beast though and 5.5 Ks is a low enough line to hit.
